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This one comes in from Carla Pasternak and Paul Tracy, who are apparently now co-editors of the StreetAuthority’s High-Yield Investing newsletter. We’ve looked at this letter several times before, and one of the marketing tools they use is the “Income Security of the Month” — just FYI, at a quick glance it looks like January’s pick of the month is the same as December’s, which you can read about here. The yield hasn’t changed much.
But that’s not what we’re looking at today — today we’ve got more of a straightforward teaser ad that tells us they’ve got a handful of great high-income picks for us, if only you’ll subscribe to their newsletter (currently about $150/year).
So this teaser includes several other high-income picks, and I’m going to take a look at one of the interesting ones this morning … if folks like these kinds of goodies, I can probably come back around and sniff out some of the others in the future.
“Be a $7 Venture Capitalist and Pocket a Hefty 20.2% Dividend”
There’s a nice spiel about how venture capital is the true wealth-maker in this country, using perhaps the best venture capital investment ever, Google, as an example of a company that went from a student research project, to a venture capital recipient, to an IPO and a rapid ascent to megacap territory in just over a decade. Not a bad story, but of course it doesn’t happen very often.
“That’s just one example, but you can thank venture capitalists for your computer, cell phone, solar panel and countless other inventions that have made our lives better… and ground-floor investors filthy rich.
“Back in the day, if you wanted a piece of the action, all you needed to do was write your own million-dollar check. Not possible for 99.99% of investors. But today, you can buy your way into the exclusive world of venture capitalists for about $7.”
That’s a frequent promise of the teaser ad, of course — that us wee investors can join the big guys in the smoke-filled rooms and get a piece of the “real” action. How do we do it?
Well, in their words …
“All you need to do is buy stock in a business development company or BDC. What are they? Simply put: They’re public firms whose stock trades like any other stock on any exchange. But they invest in a unique portfolio of stocks and bonds of small/mid-size private companies destined for greatness. In essence, they’re a reincarnation of the old venture capitalist firms retooled for a new century.”
Ah, OK — Business Development Companies are, of course, real. Most of the bigger ones serve as alternative financing sources for small and medium sized businesses — companies that need to borrow money to grow, but who aren’t big enough to issue bonds at a decent rate and aren’t small enough to borrow from the local bank. Most of these companies, like American Capital and Allied Capital and Gladstone Capital, have been terrible money-losers this year and have been significantly worse investments than the broader market, though many of them did extremely well for many years before the credit crunch.
The one we’re looking at today, however, is not one of those more familiar names … back to their words:
“… Its current yield is a dazzling 20.2% with a dividend payout for 2008 of $1.36 a share! … This BDC I’m anxious to tell you about has loaned $1.3 billion to 120 different life science and technology firms since its inception in 2003. Its specialty is biotech startups — an industry that uses cutting-edge technology to develop new drugs. It’s one of the few corners of the market that’s looking healthy right now — even robust. Even in today’s tight credit markets, this company has secured $300 million in credit and continues to build a profitable portfolio of biotech and other technology-related business.
“Despite the worldwide slowdown, this firm … is expected to see double-digit earnings next year. Sales have increased five-fold since going public in 2005. It also made some huge gains — 30%-plus — when one of its companies went public last year.”
“… As an added safety feature, their credit risk is spread over 100 companies loaning about $5-6 million per company.
The company has been listed on the NASDAQ for three years, we’re told … so what is it?
The Thinkolator can tell us right away …
Hercules Technology Growth Capital (HTGC)
The stock currently trades for just about $8 a share, and the current dividend amount is 34 cents per quarter, which does indeed add up a $1.36 annual dividend if they maintain the current rate, a rate that did go up in 2008 (from the prior 30 cents/quarter). Since the shares have gone up from the $7 area to the current $8 since they did the research for this ad the yield is down a bit, but it’s a still-impressive 17%.
So … do you want a piece of this one? From what I can tell the information in the ad is accurate, they do indeed focus on technology and life sciences companies that are already working with venture capital and trying to grow. Their list of portfolio investments includes twenty or so biotech companies along with others in medical devices, communication technology, software, semiconductors, and a few other high tech fields. You can see the list of all of their current partners/investees here.
Hercules has apparently tried over the last year or so to adjust their portfolio and strategy for a more uncertain time — in their case, that means issuing loans instead of equity investments in their portfolio companies (which means they do get more income onto the books), deleveraging at the corporate level, and focusing on firms that are “later stage” venture investments. While their recent results appear to have been quite solid, I don’t know the firm in great detail and I don’t know if they’ve been as successful as they claim in this regard. They did have net income that came close to being as high as their dividend for the last quarter, so while a few cents of that dividend is not actually coming from portfolio income it may well be sustainable.
This does look like an interesting investment, though it has been a little bit more correlated to the movements of the broader markets than I would have guessed. In the long run, Hercules will probably — like most venture capital investors — depend on occasionally having their companies go public with a nice big boom, or get bought out by other companies, so that they can make up for the many failed investments they will probably continue to make. Right now the market is obviously not ready to absorb any new IPOs, but at some point that will probably return. And Pasternak and Tracy’s focus on their biotech strength is probably not accidental, since that sector has indeed shown some resilience, and great new discoveries will probably continue to be profitable regardless of the overall market sentiment.
So what do you think? Ready to be an early stage investor in companies that invent new medicines, or develop ways to make video games faster, or sell baby gear more efficiently? It certainly looks less frightening than some of the other Business Development Companies who are terrified of rising defaults in a recession, but that’s perhaps faint praise. If you dig into the Hercules portfolio, let us know if you like what you see.
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Before this reply page gets bogged down with pros and cons of this stock I would like to make a quick observation. If a stock’s price action looks like the DOW then you are betting on the DOW.
This bit of insight comes from an old stock trader I knew at Paine Webber about 30 years ago. This old coot made money for his clients so I cannot dismiss his knowledge. His basic premise was that if a stock’s price action on a daily bar chart mimicked that of the Dow, then the stock was moving with the Dow and nothing about it was exceptional. If, however, a stock moved against the Dow over a certain amount of time, then it was either weak or strong based on the volume and extent of that move.
Since I am not smart enough to make money based on a piece of paper that reflects the future price of a company controlled by individuals (stocks) in an economy slammed by a credit crisis, I don’t buy stocks. Therefore, I do not know if you can make (or save) money doing this. I just present it as a something for you all to look at.
So, look to see if your stock has the following characteristics:
It has bottomed out on or about 21 November and has rallied up since then to form a complex Head and Shoulders Pattern (the shoulders developed on or about 10/10 and 12/22 with a breakout on 1/2/09 that has since come back to test the neckline)
If your stock looks like that then you are, according to Old Tom, simply buying the Dow movement.
Ps. HTGC has followed the Dow except that it has not retraced to the neckline. This may be because the newsletter caused a lot of buying over the last week.
Hi Yield Investing newsletter is actually closer to $400 a year.
My last thoughts on this HTGC selection are 4**** out of 5! 2/3′s of the stock is owned by institutions:
http://moneycentral.msn.com/ownership?Symbol=HTGC
I’d certainly buy this one on any pullbacks, thanks Gummie.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/charts/chartdl.aspx?PT=4&showchartbt=Redraw+chart&compsyms=htgc&CC=1&D5=0&DCS=2&MA0=1&MA1=0&CF=8&D7=&D6=&symbol=HTGC&nocookie=1&SZ=0
Well Steve, placing this ETF in context with the NASDAQ over the last 3mos. guides my thoughts somewhat; but look at the Stochastic divergence already in place. Either we have some bad data here, or HTGC is heading lower soon.
The MACD says otherwise, but I have some late arriving company & I need to tend to that right now.
Later!
Since I don’t use stochastics I cannot comment on your position. But note that I said I would not advise buying until it closed above 8.61. (Though I would rather wait for a breakout from a trough off a 9.15 R-1 to confirm.)
I only use pullbacks to verify my thinking. If the market (or stock in this case) performs as I would like then I buy on strength as it breaks out. I don’t buy on weakness. Makes no sense.
Therefore, if the market pulls back and bounces off any of the numbers given, the price action of the move along with volume tells me if there is strength in the move. If so, I buy into that strength.
I doubt anyone would argue that a close above the high of the last 7 weeks was not a strong move. Again, to be sure I would hold off until volume tells me I have lots of big company buying with me.
One big caveat though: if the stock fails these levels it would be a failed double top and a fib. failure from the 5/7/07 high to the 11/21/08 low.
Let’s see what happens, shall we.
You have plenty of time to see how this plays out. It is in a negative trend with the BRL at $9.00. I’ve been using relative strength analysis for over 29 years. The DOW 30 is NOT a good indicator. Use the RSP, the equal weighted S&P 500. The first triple top buy signal for this one would be at $9.50.
With all due respect Steve, I’d say you’re matching apples & oranges with these two comps. The Dow Jones is an industrial index, & I’m certain that HTGC (or venture stocks like it) are nothing like an industrial index.
Secondly, their dividend incomes on avg. don’t match, or even come close.
I don’t see it listed in their Yield Maximizer portfolio for 01/09, nor in their Undervalued Gems Portfolio either. So it’s probably too new a pick or exclusively in Carla’s High Yield portfolio which isn’t incl. in my trial subscription.
I like the Biotech inclusion in HTGC’s portfolio, that whole industry is looking great for 2009 & beyond. I prefer the experts to analyze such a complicated & volatile industry.
Apples, oranges, grapes… they are all fruit.
My point is that I do not trade stocks but if you look at them, lots of stocks mimick the Dow.
Why is that? Just a conincidence? That has been going on for 30 years that I know of so it is one heck of a long coincidence.
Please, do look at 20 or 30 different stocks and notice the similarity of many to the Dow.
Or the S$P.
Believe it or not Steve, they’ve reduced the bill of fare to $149./yr & $249. for two years. 2008 wasn’t too hot for them evidently.
https://www.streetauthority.com/subscribe-hy.asp
The High Yield Intl Letter is $397./yr, & Nick Lanyi is the editor.
(Wasn’t he working with Carla on this Intl Letter at one time?)
What, might one ask, do you consider a “pullback”?
Any specific price or just the first time it goes below today’s close?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=HTGC&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
W/O spliting hairs Steve, let’s use the $7.+ area Travis referred to in his expose. Since the entire market is trending downward this past week, we might get there or close. A few insiders grabbed shares last fall @ +/- $5.00, but unless we swoon badly from here, I doubt we’ll get that good an entry price.
Their dividend policy is looking at a possible 5 div. payout, so how bad shape could this ETF be in?
JMHO!
Just for S&Gs let me put some numbers out for you:
7.72, 7.32 and 7.22. A bounce off any of these numbers would indicate trend strength.
If the market pulled back in sympathy with a broader index selloff, then an uptrend would still be valid and 6.58 is the next buy area.
Personally, I wouldn’t advise buying until it closed over the last highs (8.61 would be good).
Disclaimer: I don’t trade stocks. Too much like watching paint dry.
We differ because you’re more of a momentum trader & I’m more of a swing trader (buy low/sell higher!)
HTGC is fundamentally the type of stock that you buy the dips, IMHO! Their divvy alone make that approach less risky, & the analyst community loves them, they have tremendous sponsorship for a venture cap ETF, especially in this crumbling market.
It s/b interesting if & when this market decides to level off & build their next base.
What is a BRL and how does one apply it to make this stock a negative trend?
Also, the RSP looks a lot like the S&P, which is down dramatically today, while this stock is holding steady.
Great questions. The BRL is the bearish resistance line. It acts like a brick wall. Every time the stock gets near the line, it is beaten back. RSP has the S&P 500 stocks as members but each stock gets one vote. The SPY is cap weighted so the top 40 stocks control the index. This shows the trend – lower tops and lower bottoms:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=HTGC,PLUADANRBOPADF1!3!.5!!2!20]&pref=G
SageNot: Just a quick follow up to my comments of 13 Jan. HTGC bounced off 733 twice and rallied back up to close at the former support line (funny how those numbers work like that). The strength of this move today indicates good technical buying. It does not mean it is time to take a position since any good technical trader could have seen it develop and scalped it.
If it opens up tomorrow, and clears 8.62 on a close basis, then you have accumulated strength and a buy signal.
If it falls without rallying first, then look for the other numbers I gave you to keep it in check with 7.16 replacing 7.22. 6.58 should hold if the broader market falls, which I doubt will happen.
PS. I sold a lot of puts on the S&P today when it bounced off the retrace of support line going back to September. We may be seeing the beginning of that “Obama Rally” I keep hearing about. Tomorrow’s action might cue me to sell some more puts. If this pattern keeps developing, then based on price action at that time, I may be taking outright buy positions on a close around 880 area. A failure of the market to advance tomorrow would not be constructive to the overall pattern.