DISCLAIMER: I am long shares of SBOTF and may add to the position at any time.
”Even blind squirrels find an acorn every now and then”
OK, I know .. there is already plenty of discussion re Stellar Biotechnologies (SBOTF) on the site. Since Travis posted the tease from Nick Hodge in early July, the stock is up a hair over 100% (my Special Situation account sends many thanks for that one!). The reason I’m opening this thread is because the majority of comments from those of us interested or already invested in SBOTF are being posted under another wonderful – yet mostly unrelated – thread by Doc Gumshoe that talks about Alzheimers and possible causes/treatments/cures. Great stuff, but not fully germane to the topic of SBOTF. So, tho seperate the two discussions, I thought I’d try this so we can focus on each of the topics independantly.
That said, here’s some commentary about SBOTF that I have gleaned from the original tease, tracking the price action since July, reading member comments on this site, and studying anything and everything I can find about the Company and it’s product, Giant Keyhole Limpet Hemogobulin, a/k/a KLH.
First, a little peeve I’ve developed; the actual name of this animal that is the central focus of the business. I’ve noticed a trend of sorts by readers to refer to the Limpet as a ”snail”, ”escargot”, or something along those lines. While some may be using this as a light-hearted way of referring to the animal, it is not any of those. Please, use the proper name – as silly as it might sound. New readers could easily dismiss the entire idea and be misled otherwise. No disrespect meant to any who have done this, but I think it’s important we stay on track.
Now, some factoids for you.
If you haven’t done your due dilligence yet, the place to start is right here on this page. In the upper right you’ll see a box that says ”Teaser Tracking.” Click on that. The page that comes up is a list of the teases which Travis has posted over the past many months. Second from the top is the one re SBOTF. Some good tidbits of info right there. But what you want to do is look all the way over to the right and click on the link to the original tease posting. Open that and you’ll get the full story that Travis wrote when he first uncovered this tease (produced by Nick Hodge) and is a solid foundation of info about the company. Read it – two or three times to get an understanding of what SBOTF is all about.
Next, if you can find it, try and get a post that has the original video that Hodge did to tease the company with. In it, he (Hodge) interviews a couple of the company’s top executives and takes the cameras outside the room totalk with another employee about the ”farming” process that SBOTF has spent years and millions developing and patenting. You’ll get a pretty good visual inspection of the plant itself, the ”grow tanks”, and the Limpet. Good stuff. By the end you’ll have a fair overview of the company and what it does. FYI, the video tease runs about 40 minutes. It’s the first 25 minutes or so that will interest you. The remainder is what all teases consist of, overblown and repetitive pleas to get you to subscribe to the newsletter service that the promoter has to offer. Save yourself time and money by skipping that stuff.
A few takeaways from the video and additional research:
SBOTF has been around since the late 1990’s, working on how to extract the blood from the Limpet without killing them (they have done that and gotten patents on the process) and how to raise them in captivity in order to ensure a continuious supply of the animals to work with. This ”farming” process has, for the most part, been perfected and SBOTF can now raise them from fertilization of sperm and egg to maturity. They have a lifespan of some 30 years, and coupled with the patent-protected process they developed for extracting the blood without killing the Limpet, the company can now say with assurance that they can provide the Big Pharma with all the KLH they need to conduct clinical trials and produce the drugs they develop once FDA approval is granted. And – this is a big ”and” – they are the ONLY company in existence that can do this at the present time. The many patents they hold may ensure that to be the case for years to come.
Did I mention that KLH cannot be synthesized? So far nobody has been able to do that, so the supply of KLH from SBOTF seems to remain the only game in town.
Stellar Bio has yet to turn a profit. Sales and not much to write home about. That is mainly due to the small supply available and that SBOTF has focused on R&D in the past moreso than actual KLH production. That’s my best guess – I can’t verify that but seems to be the case. It is changing, however. The R&D is still in full swing, but the ability to produce and sell KLH is starting to ramp up as witnessed by increasing sales volume. It’ll take time but those increasing sales are coming.
In the wild (ocean floor), the Giant Keyhole Limpet has never been found ANYWHERE in the world other than in the small colony (estimated to be about 100,000 animals) which is just offshore from the Stellar Bio plant in Ventura County, CA. The enviromental community has been getting more and more concerned about the harvesting of the Limpets from this colony since there apparently aren’t any more around. Whisper talk about possible extinction have begun to surface, although no official governmental action regarding a ”protected specise” has yet been issued. This is why the farming of the animals has been crucial and why Stellar has such a leg up on any possible competition. If the Tree Huggers get hold of that idea, the ability to harvest the colony could – and probably would – be severely impacted.
Recent price and volume action has been fast and furious. As more and more people are becoming aware of the company by means of Hodges’ tease and thing such as this discussion, volume has had days that were near three times the average six months ago (175K shares average vs. some days now running around 500K). And most of this is upside volume indicating increasing demand for shares of a small float. This of course leads to highr prices as we are witnessing as I write.
For now, the gravy train is tearing down the track. The question is, when will demand for shares be curtailed as investor thirst for a bite of Limpet pie become satisfied? When will Nick Hodge back off this promotion, letting the press subside and therefore lessening investor awareness (the stock is not covered by any analyst, anywhere, that I can find, nor is it held by any mutual fund or investment management company). If and when this interest backs off, what effect will that have on the stock price? Trees don’t grow to the sky … or do they?
I can’t answer those questions. Just like you, I can only hold ’um and not fold ’um – yet. That day may come, and that is why I suggest anyone long the stock keep a DAILY eye on it. I’m making no prediction whatsoever about where the price will go over the next several weeks or months. In the interest of full disclosure, I have already taken some money off the table just to partially protect the quick profits I made since purchase. I sold about 30% of my initial position when that part became valued around 50% of my original investment. What remains is valued today right at the same $ amount I first put in. The amouunt I pulled out gives me full protection of some 50% of my original investment. Would I be better off today if I hadn’t done that? Yes. I would, because the price continues to rise. Will I be better of for having made thaat sale if the price stumbles and falls in the near future? Again, yes, I will – if the price falls. Some wise man once said ”you can’t go broke if you take profits” and I believe in that. Me, I don’t care for the idea of going broke, so I’m perfectly happy with this concept. No regrets about putting actual money in the bank, so to speak.
Comments? Concerns? Insights? Let the fun began!
Sincerely,
Your Resident Blind Squirrel
Jim Skelton
This is a discussion topic or guest posting submitted by a Stock Gumshoe reader. The content has not been edited or reviewed by Stock Gumshoe, and any opinions expressed are those of the author alone.
Hey guys, is anyone out there? Eleven days since a post? This is the hard part, right? Sticking with it through ups, downs, and sideways? Anyone have any news or insight that the group could benefit from? I think that the addition of Stellar to the S&P/TSV Venture Index is a positive thing, no? Would love to hear from anyone!
JB
Hi Jana, yes this is the hard part. The waiting game – waiting for the right wave to come in so we can surf our way to prosperity (or at the least some cash advancement).
Hang in there, it may not have much movement until mid next year, and thus, why stocks are always a ‘long’ proposition. Unless, of course, you like to day trade or as I sometimes do, week trade, but this action is for those who sit and stare at graphs and stock tickers all day long. (which is for sure not me)
Hey Jana ..
Yeah, still out here. Have almost posted up something or another several times over the past two weeks but then realized there isn’t really anything constructive to say. Sometime back in Early to mid September I wrote a post in which I said “the easy money has been made.” I stick by that assertion. As you and all others have undoubtedly noticed, we seem to have established a trading range of sorts of $1.40 to $1.60, give or take. I believe it will take some rather large announcement from the Company to move us off that mark. Something new, something solid. What that could be at this stage I have no idea.
Last evening I got a notice from Paul Reyes, CEO, about a news story that had been written about Stellar. I assume all of you are connected to the Company investor relations department and get those messages automatically, right? If not, for goodness sake, get hooked up and plugged in. Anyway, it was a nice story, very positive, very informative for anyone who hasn’t yet discovered the “Magic Molecule” story. I thought maybe it could give a little upside push today if and when new investors might become interested. But as you can see, with SBOTF now down about $0.05 as I type, nothing of the sort has happened. So the wait continues. And the trading range persists.
I sorta hesitite to write what comes next but I’m gonna do it anyway. I don’t want to get this thread off the track and onto a very different subject, but what the hell .. nothing else going on.
Last week, being they type to get easily bored when the action slows, and looking for something I might make a dime or two on while we all wait on these idiots we keep electing to represent us in Washington to resolve the Gov shutdown issues and the upcoming debt limit, I started poking around into some critters I knew existed but had never used in my portfolios. I’m talking about Inverse Index ETF’s. Very high risk, very high potential return. Just my cup of tea if I get bored.
You might check out one in particular, symbol UVXY. It’s a really esoteric invention, an “index” of basically perceptions. Yep, perceptions and anticipation and market sentiment. Nothing even solid. Start by going to Wikipedia and look up Inverse Index ETF’s. Read all you can. Then research. See if you think these thongs might be something of interest. Just beware; they move fast and hard based on those perceptions of where the market may be going in the next 30 days. That’s all I’ll say. I’m NOT recommending these for anyone. But sure are fun to follow and if you dare, try to make a few bucks while we wait out Stellar.
Best of Investing to all!
Jim Skelton
The Blind Squirrel
Hi All,
Glad I found a support group. 🙂 I have bought in in a big way, first at 1.79 (the drop to 1.30 was gut wrenching) and added to cost down to about 1.71. However, everything I have perused through on the web and their website makes me believe this company is a real gem. I seem to recall that they are presenting at a conference in about a week, but I can’t seem to find that information now. Can anyone confirm that? If they make a breakthrough on a c. diff. vaccine, huge potential there alone. This is the only place I have seen a substantive discussion on Stellar.
My comments from August 27th still apply…the roller coaster ride will continue. There is support at these levels and we won’t see much action unless there is very good news or the market makers decide to give it another run prior to a news release. We’re here long term so I’m not too concerned about the day to day.
Hi ya’ll. Just checking in, no changes, no panic. This is the 6th time I have tried to post. At some point I have inadvertently hit or touched something on the keyboard of my Dell XPS that completely wipes out my post and I have to start over. I wish to God someone could tell me what I’m doing wrong. Luckily for you, my precious allegory comparing investing in Stellar to baking a loaf of bead is MIA, and I’ll just say bye for now. JB
FYI: That Inverse ETF, UVXY, that I mentioned yesterday was up 12.25% or $4.06 in today’s action. The failure of Congress to reach a deal on anything pushed sentiment quite negative for what may be happening in the markets 30 days out. Personally, not being able to (ever) hit exact lows and highs in my buy/sell trades, I made about 7%. In a day. I’m still holding so I might lose that and more tomorrow if a deal is reached on the debt ceiling. I have little faith it will, though. We’ll see.
Do you like Biotech companies such as Stellar in general? If so, here’s another idea to consider and how to get a good research report on it. The company is Acadia Pharmaceuticals, symbol ACAD. Current price $23.13, 52 week range of $1.80 to about $29.50. They have developed a specific anti-psychotic drug to treat people with Parkinsons, Alzheimers, and a host of other mental illnesses that result in psychosis and depression. It has gone through most FA trials, has blown past those obstacles mainly because the trials indicate almost zero side effects (the worst being occasional headaches), and are nearing full clearance to start production and sales. The medical community is eagerly awaiting release for use in indicated applications as well as many off-label uses.
Get this: using very conserative numbers, the analyst I found who has done exhaustive work on the company and the drug in question – called Pimavanserin, or just “Pima” for short – totally believes it can generate a MINIMUM of $10 BILLION in sales. Actually, his numbers call for more like $20 BILLION, but he is trying not to over-hype the thing. This is NOT a “Tease” as we are accustomed to finding here on Stock Gumshoe. It is NOT “Tulip Bulbs” as I questioned when I opened this blog on Stellar. Very real company. Very real drug. Very real explosive potential.
To read the report – written by Brian Nichols, do the following:
Go to the website of http://www.seekingalpha.com
Scroll down the list of reports until you see one entitled “Pimavanserin: The Most Underestimated Blockbuster in Biotechnology” by Brian Williams.
Click on that and read what he has to say. he writes in a very open and user-friendly manner. You don’t need a Nobel-level biotechnology degree to follow his reasoning and story.
That’s all I’ll say. read, learn, decide for yourself. Give you something to do while we wait out this lull in Stellar prices. DISCLOSURE: I Intend to establish an initial position in Acadia Pharmaceuticals within the course of the next 3 days. Might this blind squirrel have run across another acorn? :0)
Best of Investing to the Gumshoe nation!
Jim Skelton
The Blind Squirrel
Well Jim, you may have found another one. It has had a great run, but probably plenty to go. Nice couple of days on Stellar… Got a question for you or anyone else who may have done this. I ran some back of the envelope numbers and came up with anywhere from $22 to about $50 per share in 3-5 years. Here is how I came up with it (feel free to critique/add to this…) Using Stellar’s estimated yearly revenue (where there was a range I took the low end.) They estimate about 620mm per year / 70 mm shares = $8.85 per share gross revenue. Assuming we don’t get massively diluted. I have a problem determining expenses, but some large pharmas have about 25% net profit per share. I would assume at least that, and maybe more since Stellar is a small company (fewer employees, sales staff, etc.) IF (correct me here) their expenses are 50% gross revenue, then $4.42 net revenue per share X 10pe (avg. biotech pe) = $44 per share. At 25% it should be about $22 per share. Where did I go wrong there? (I am clearly not an analyst, and my first attempt to prognosticate.) Thanks for any feedback anyone can offer.
Jim, I believe its Brian Nichols and not Brian Williams who authored the “Pimavanserin” story.
Just in case some people had issue finding it.
Thanks for your interesting points of view everyone. I enjoy this site very much.
Hello Jim,
Thank you for the ACAD note. I have been trying to look up the latest FDA reports or news on this but have not found anything. They have eschewed final Phase 3 trials and have gone directly to FDA approval. So please could you let me know if you have anything on
a.) What is the current status of the drug with respect to FDA approval? What is the likelihood of approval by FDA?
b.) When will the approval (if provided) by FDA come through?
c.) In the trials: the delusion score dropped by 5.79 points using Pima while scores for placebo patients only dropped 2.73 points. Could anybody throw light on this? and if this drug is extremely beneficial to patients that it would force doctors everywhere to recommend this or is it just another pill (addition to Risperdal, Zyprexa, Abilify) with little side effect?
d.) Not so sure about the pricing stats though. It is mentioned that it will command premium pricing ($1000 per month!). Per year = $12000 for just one pill! That is a lot of money for just one pill. Not sure if the patients (i sure as cant!) can afford for just one pill considering they have a whole of pills and other expenses (i feel for them).
I also came across a comment (by JJ PositionTrade) which seems to support this fact and make sense
“Zyprexa, Abilify, Risperdal, etc. are highly potent drugs to treat schizophrenia, a far more debilitating disease than Parkinson’s or Alzheimer’s psychosis. I’m not belittling those who have it, but you need much more power than what pimavanserin offers to treat schizophrenia alone. They will not get $1000/mo for this drug to treat Parkinson’s psychosis. It is treated now with low doses of Seroquel for very little per month, so why would any insurer add $12000/yr to the bill of a Parkinson’s pt who is already paying $20K to $30K per year for their current PD meds and other diseases? Making comparisons to Parkinson’s psychosis and schizophrenia in your pricing models is a huge mistake. These are two completely different diseases”
Another comment ” Pimvanserin has shown that it works pretty well in Parkinson’s related psychosis. To extrapolate this result to other forms of psychosis is a big jump. Psychosis is a syndrome; and like all syndromes they tend to have some similar features but mechanisms may be quite different.”
My Take: From the above comments + LET me remind you that markets outside US are extremely different and very few can afford this costly pill (For $12k one can get a full time nurse to take care of AZ, PK patient for a whole year). So if this is true, the evaluation drops by atleast 50%
Sorry, if i am copy pasting other users’ comments but these seem to be significant comments. Also, my knowledge is limited to reading reports and comments. I am not involved in the pharmaceutical industry.
So considering all this, doesn’t the current stock price reflect all the uptake + there is the additional huge risk of FDA approval.??
Will: Thank you for your numbers but $600 million sales is a bit too high. I had estimated $300 million and also you are missing out on debt and R&D expenses (which i think is significant say 25%). But from my analysis i had an estimate of $10 per share if they were able to generate enough sales of KLH and if (BIG IF) a blockbuster vaccine using KLH is developed (most of them are in Stage 1 and 2) :(. Long way off..
Thank you,
AH
Good news from the company regarding promising preclincal tests with lab mice to the C difficile vaccine. Stellar will be presenting this week at a big C. Diff. Conference so good timing with the initial results. The stock has been trending up nicely lately and this news should add support. I’m expecting $2 a share or more by year’s end (sustainable, not just a one day blip $2 plus). There are still miles to go even re. this first vaccine, but the ride is certainly enjoyable! The weekly gyrations of the market can be unsettling, but the upside potential of this company remains very solid. KLH shows tremendous promise in a broad range of treatments. The talking heads on CNBC, Bloomberg and various stock services wont touch this stock until it hits close to $10 so enjoy the profits as you have gotten in close to the ground floor even if you just get in today!
Thanks for the reply AH. I used the lower range of numbers that Stellar estimated (in their investor presentation) as yearly revenue. (Though, to your point, underestimating that by half is probably prudent.) Could you clarify your statement on expenses? I used 25% of gross revenue as net profit, meaning 75% expense ratio (Amgens latest quarterly announcement was about there.) This is where the $22/share figure comes from. Do you mean 25% of revenue is the debt and R&D expenses? Also Celldex is currently in phase 3 trials for Glioblastoma and OBI looks like they are enrolling for phase 3 for breast cancer. But you are right, most are in phase I/II… If your expense numbers are the same as mine (on the 75% of gross revenue) and I cut my estimate to 300mm then our numbers are essentially the same at about $10-$11/share.
Stellar Biotch remains stellar–above $1.90 and still rising, another pleasant surprise. I had expected $2 by year’s end but once again it’s beating my estimates. Jim and others who like small biotechs before the Street discovers them–I like CTIX over ACAD Jim. Cellceutix is only trading at $1.80 and has a very promising pipeline of four phase 1,2, 2/3 drugs plus many other compounds showing promise in pretrials. Their main focus is in hard to treat illnesses–espc. in oncology, dermatology and antibiotics. I haven’t bought yet but I’m strongly considering investing in CTIX.
Other speculatives I do own are in the green energy area–Natcore (NTCXF) is a very promising solar tech company that has technologies that can make solar compete with other forms of energy even without government subsidies. The stock has been soaring even more than Stellar in recent days, perhaps due to China no longer as heavily subsidizing their solar industry. NTCXF is currently selling right around $1 per share.
Clearsign Combustion (CLIR) has been around longer and sells for about $7.40 a share. It is also an “energy technology” company that has technology that can make any flame based energy dramatically more efficient and dramatically less polluting. If their claims are even close to being true, the coal industry and oil and gas refiners (among others) could really benefit from their technology. This stock hasn’t been a great performer in recent months but is up 40% for the year and it certainly has a big upside. I like all four of these microcaps as, in my mind, they have tremendous upsides with proven technologies or very promising drugs/compounds. While there are certainly big risks in any microcap–I don’t see as much risk in any of these companies as I do in many other microcaps since they all have very useful products and/or technologies that should make considerable money as they benefit society. That’s a nice combination. Stellar is by far my biggest holding but I lke the other three quite a bit as well.
Thanks for all the tips. A few months ago my mom was diagnosed with an aggressive cancer and I came across the keyhole limpets research. I then looked for analysts interested which led me here. I picked this stock up at $1.25 a while back and then added more at $1.55 after doing research and following the ups and downs. Sadly my mom passed after a valiant effort. I hope one day these limpets help others. I am a very rational/cautious investor and have never bought a penny stock until now. Their story is inspiring. I know my mom’s illness made me more emotional but felt why not. I usually hold long and don’t worry about my account. Strangely this little stock gets me up each day to see how it’s doing. One day at a time. Thanks Jim aka blind squirrel for your analysis and belief in this stock. I’m a fan of yours and stock gumshoe now here in Austin.
Stellar’s knocking on the $2 door at the close today and the trend continues steadily up. A skeptic might point to the euphoria in 2010 when the stock opened and went from about .25 to $1.50 in late Dec. and then spent the next two years steadily backtracking to about .40. I would argue that the 2013 rally is much different as now there is a lot more scientific evidence, there are now at least 2 billionaire investors with strong positions, a Taiwanese Biotech Company linked in and a promising C Diff. vaccine in development. There will still be volatility, but hopefully a lot less than right around the Private Placement. Market timers will still try to benefit from the swings and manipulate the price when they can. My hunch is that this will lessen with the stock price now in the $2 range.
Happy investing giant keyhole limpet lovers.
i got an email today that announced that it has been added to in an index. Funds that track the index would need to buy the shares.
What has happened to the dialogue on Stellar. Has it stopped or can it be found elsewhere on the website?
Thanks,
Tomo
Stellar Biotech (SBOTF) remains a great long term investment Tom. It’s price seems to have paused in the 1.85-1.99 range of late as there hasn’t been significant price moving news after the announcement that the pretrails for the C Difficile Vaccine look very good. They just had a management announcement today but I don’t see that as making much difference in stock movement. It does look like the company continues to position itself for significant growth which is promising. Stellar appears to have excellent scientists and excellent management for a microcap along with very impressive vaccination possibilities for KLH in the future. These things make this tiny company one to watch for years to come.
Stellar Biotechnologies has held up well in a rough two month period for many biotech stocks. This bodes well for our favorite microcap biotech company : ) Once the sector warms up, I expect Stellar to easily reach $2 and any partnerships or other good news coming in will mean another significant rise in the stock price. Hang in there limpet land!
Greetings once again to the Gumshoe Nation in general and Stellar Biotechnologies c0-conspirators in particular! Jim Skelton here, your resident Blind Squirrel investor once again, weighing in on recent developments – or perhaps I might say lack thereof – at Stellar Bio. This little Blog I began back in, what was it? – July perhaps? – has gone dark for the past few weeks. That’s understandable what with there being little to discuss other than small changes in price and volume in the stock.
That changed a bit when Travis mentioned in the latest Friday File that our old friend, Nick Hodge, had re-re-re-released his tease featuring Stellar Bio. I was wondering when he’d go back to that well to try and drum up business for his newsletter. It’s been far too good a recommendation for him to walk away from, and I suspect he’ll keep on beating that drum form many months to come. And that’s a good thing. You can’t get too much investor awareness of the company and what it has going for it at this point. So, thanks again Nick, for bringing this great little company to our attention in the first place, and for keeping it out front in your promotions. With Stellar, you actually did hit a home run that has benefited all of us who drank the Kool-Aid and became true believers.
I don’t know when exactly this re-release happened and whether or not it contained any new info. He MUST have had to make some changes to the previous teases if for no other reason than to update the pricing he refers to in the dialogue. The original tease referred to a stock price of about $0.63, and that was way out of line with reality when the previous release was done back around August or so. If there are any other corrections / additions I’d like to know. So, you Super Sleuths of Stellarville, if you can post up a link to this most recent tease for viewing I – and I’m sure others – would appreciate it. That’s what we’re here for, right? To help and assist all stakeholders or potential stakeholders in understanding the Company better and get a clear grasp of the facts vs. the conjecture.
I’m hoping that Nick will prove himself to be not just “Nick” this time, but perhaps “St. Nick” and give us an early Christmas present in the form of providing new blood into the mix here and helping push the price out of this stubborn trading range of about $1.80 – $2.00 we’ve become mired in for the past few weeks. Those of us who have been here awhile, especially from early July to the present, have become accustomed to a wild and exciting ride where it was “normal” to see DAILY price swings of 10% – 20%. Now that that kind of thing has subsided for now, it can lead to a little boredom for those of us who thrive on the action. Thus the “going dark” I referenced in the opening of this comment. Like the LEO’s at a crime scene say, “Move on folks, nothing to see here.”
Now. that statement provides a near-perfect segue to this next commentary.
If you have been reading my posts here you will know that (1) I sometimes will move away from a buy-and-hold approach to a trading stance on a stock. I tend to get a little antsy if a fast mover slows down and I can’t see an obvious and imminent price-driver coming soon. I don’t allow myself to become married or emotionally attached to a stock. If I think I can carve out $0.10 or so on a position of maybe 10,000 shares and then buy back later at a lower price, I’ll do it in a heartbeat. You know how much I believe in taking profit out of the hands of that mythical entity I call “Mr. Market” and making it truly mine to use as I please. And you know that I am not anchored to the idea that, in order to re-enter a position, I MUST be able to buy back at a price LOWER than that at which I sold. If I sell all or part of a position, I then look at it with fresh eyes just as if I was seeing the opportunity for the very first time and making a buy decision based on that perspective. I WILL NOT sit and watch a good company run away from me just because I happen to have sold it lower. In my carrer as a Financial Advisor I watch helplessly as dozens and dozens of clients lost opportunity by adhering to a belief – rooted in unjustified pride – that they could only own a stock again if they could buy back more cheaply than they had sold at. A fools game, that is.
So here’s an update on what I’ve done recently as it relates to SBOTF. I relate it not to brag but just to keep myself honest.
Having watched the price of Stellar bounce between $1.75 and $2.00 (approx.) for a couple days previous, and not taking advantage of those swings, on Nov. 24 – 25 I sold ALL holdings. 82% of the stock was sold on the 24th at $1.85 p/s. the remaining 18% was sold on the 25th at $1.74. My average weighted sales price worked out to be $1.805 p/s. I hoped I would be able to repurchase later at or below $1.75 p/s. I’m still waiting on that but it appears the price of $1.80 has become pretty solid. I’ve gone in with limit orders to buy twice in the past three days. I was looking for $1.78 the first time and then $1.80 the second. Neither got filled, missing out by $0.013 on the first order and then only $0.005 yesterday. So close, so far. I’ll keep trying. But if the price moves above $1.90 and stays there for at least three consecutive days, I’ll reconsider and reload.
Meanwhile, the cash has not been idle. There are ALWAYS other fish to fry, or Limpets to bleed so to speak.
On Nov. 28 I bought:
Mason Graphite (MGPAF) @ $0.28 p/s. It closed yesterday @ $0.38, a gain of 29%
Nutranomics (NNRX) @ $0.61 p/s. It closed yesterday @0.59, a loss of (7%)
Organovo (ONVO) @$9.97 p/s. It closed yesterday at 12.74, a gain of 28%
US Rare Earths (UREE) @ $2.67 p/s. It closed yesterday @ $2.65, a loss of (0.5%)
So, while I wait on SBOTF to demonstrate a propensity for meaningful movement, up or down, I’ve not done badly with the cash. That is a very risky way to play this game, of course, and ought not be used by anyone who hasn’t the ability to sustain without financial disaster a substantial loss of capital. Tread lightly here.
And just so you know that all is not perfection in the Land of Blind Squirrels, I took a loss of some 34% by selling an ill-fated position I had in Acasti Pharma (ACST) yesterday. Had bought it @ $2.46, watched as it dwindled, let my usual cut off point of 25% pass right on by, and sold at $1.63. You win some, you lose some, you move on.
Enough of that. I am watching SBOTF carefully and WILL be long again in due course. It remains a great Company with a bright future and huge potential for growth. For those readers here that may have just entered a position in the Company or are considering doing so, take great heart. Stellar Bio has been and will be, in my opinion, a portfolio holding that will warm the cockles of your heart (what are “cockles” anyway?) in due course. Just DO IT!!
Regards’ Jim Skelton
The Blind Squirrel
“Even a Blind Squirrel finds an acorn every now and then”
DISCLOSURE: I am long MGPAF, NNRX, ONVO, and UREE. I may purchase shares of SBOTF at any time
EPILOGUE TO A CRAZY DAY
by Jim Skelton
The Blind Squirrel
Hello again Fellow Gumshoers and fans of Giant Keyhole Limpets everywhere. The trading day is done for some 2+ hours now and I’m finished cleaning up the debris and counting my beans from the days activity. It ain’t pretty.
I had little more than posted the above comments this AM when the markets opened and things started going South in a rush. Almost across the board, the micro cap and technology stocks were taking hits right and left with no supporting news to use in order to make sense of it. Of particular note to me was, of course, SBOTF and also one of the four other stocks I mentioned, Organovo (ONVO).
ONVO, which as I said I had made about 27% on in just 4 days, was dropping like a stone. From its open at $12.28 it began a plunge like an Olympic diver off the high platform. By 11:00 AM I had seen enough. With about a 7% gain remaining in the position I sold and got out at $10.59. Organovo closed at $9.60, down 25% on the day. It actually traded as low as ~ 8.80 in mid-afternoon.
I don’t have any idea yet as to why the big hit. Just profit taking I assume. Trees don’t grow to the sky. And besides, I made a little money on the fast trade, so who’s to complain. I’ll watch it to see if a rebound starts and may well re-enter the position. It’s still an exciting company with, I believe, a bright future.
Then there is Stellar.
I told you I had missed getting filled on a couple orders Monday by just a fraction of a cent or so. That was a fortunate event – I’d rather be lucky than good any day, as they say. I almost entered a limit buy at $1.79 just after 10:00 AM but didn’t. Shortly thereafter SBOTF began to claw its way back above the $1.80 “floor” and hit about $1.82 by 11:30 AM. I thought at the time I had missed my chance once again. Little did I know – I’m a blind squirrel, remember?
From there the decline resumed and by 1:30 PM we had an ask of $1.755. I couldn’t resist any longer. I put in a limit order to buy at $1.75 for 2000 shares and got an immediate fill. Happy Days! Scary Days!
The happiness with $1.75 was short-lived. After staying flat at $1.75 for about 45 minutes, at 2:15 PM the decline resumed. And by and large remained in that trend for the rest of the day, trading as low as $1.66 around 3:30 PM, then recovering a bit to close at $1.70. On a volume of almost 500,000 shares, double recent daily volume levels. And my system is showing an aftermarket pricing of $1.66 bid, $1.73 ask. Huge spread indicating nobody knows which way this ball may bounce tomorrow.
As for me, I’m not entirely unhappy with the $1.75 price. As for the 2000 shares, that represents 20% of the position size I want to have restored in my Special Situations account before I let this thing just sit and cook. If I can get 10,000 shares with an average cost of, say $1.70 p/s and see it make $2.50 in the next 2 years or less, well, that’s a handsome return. It’s not the returns we were seeing six months ago, but still very good. We’re all spoiled, you know? Spoiled rotten, thinking that 100% a year is a Ho-Hum investment. We’re SUPPOSED to be happy with a 10% – 12% average annual rate of return in the market, remember? Lets try to put some perspective on this.
Now I gotta go and start reading some of the after-action reports from fellow Seeking Alpha contributors and other sources to see if any sense can be made of it all. Carl Icahn said today that he thinks a major sell off across all markets could happen anytime. Thanks for the specific and insightful input, Carl. That’s a real help. Sheesh .. even the big dogs don’t know what to do. Which leaves you and me scratching our keesters and hoping for the best ..
Until Later,
Jim Skelton
The Blind Squirrel
DISCLOSURE: I AM LONG STELLAR BIOTECH (SBOTF) AND MAY ADD TO THIS POSITION AT ANY TIME.
Hey Jim,
Your notes make for quite a reading! SBOTF seems to be in a decline and has reached the 1.50 mark. But still hopeful for it in the long run. NASDAQ , DOW all seem to be going up except the stocks i own 🙂 Did you get into ACAD? I have been watching it for a while but have not made an entry into it.
Cheers,
AH
Apparently many SBOTF warrants have been exercised recently and this has diluted the market share. Also, many microcaps have been punished in the past several days. My favorite other two micros–Natcore and ClearSign have also had a very rough week. Hang in there folks, big swings are par for the course with the tiny companies. Buy low Sell high–not the other way around folks! If you have confidence in the long term prospects of a company, don’t panic.