Friday File: Insurance Disruption, flat Rhythm, and a falling Par

Thanks Travis for the discussion on SNOW Snowflake; gives me a better understanding. Today it was down 6.27% to $227.10 - appears to be settling out. I did buy some earlier this week, maybe I should have waited longer.....like maybe months. I'll continue to hold on to PAR.

Thanks Travis for all your research! Alot covered today!

Travis. I am still wondering about GAN. Comparing with Drafting, GAN has been extremely underperforming. Do you think GAN might be suffering due to loss of attention or interest like RYTM?

Travis, MSTR has been in the news lately. Software company buying $425m of bitcoin. What are your thoughts?

Travis, I am a very simple person, by just looking at people buying guns in those swing states, Trump will win.

About GAN, I sold it with a gain couple months ago. I had DEACW to begin with now I have DKNG that is performing so well beyond my expectation . I think DKNG has a very aggressive management team and also has home field advantage.

Hello, Travis, Thanks for the analysis. Concerning Lemonade, you reference that it will do a “giveback” of its underwriting profits. I am a little confused. Are there other avenues of making profits for Lemonade or is Lemonade only making (or will make) profits from underwriting? If underwriting is or will be the only source of profits, then surely a giveback of underwriting profits would deter investors.

Hi Travis,Recently joined as an irregulars member and appreciate your in depth analysis! Was wondering if you or someone could briefly explain how you got your valuations for SNOW and thanks in advance!"If the growth rate is consistent for the second half of 2020, then they should have about $340 million in revenue to close out the year, so that would be $682 million in sales for all of 2020… which means that SNOW right now is valued at almost exactly 100X expected 2020 sales. If they double their sales in each of the next two years, which is crazy but clearly expected, that would mean the stock is trading at about 30X 2023 revenues. "

We are not voting for a party this year we are voting for Capitalism or Socialism, we have not heard the information that will shape the election this year, that is still to come. Rythm left a double gap in the charts just below twenty dollars once that fills and there is no bad news on their project it will return to the positive side. Thousands of us in Florida have already voted.

Hey Travis, your write up is one of the things I look forward to the most each friday, I like to sit with a warm cup of coffee and slowly read through all of it in hopes to learn from your knowledge and experience, thank you for that!I know nothing about the financial or insurance industry, but I am interested in the ticker ALIZY which is Allianz, an insurer. If you know of them would you care to share your thoughts? I like to invest in strong brands with growth potential and this seems like it could fit my criteria. Thanks again!

Here is some of what I know being in the IT industry. I'm by no means an expert in database administration (i hate it actually) but do have some education with it. Snowflake is very confusing to understand if you dont work directly in analytics or database administration and its close to impossible to grasp if not working in IT. Generally speaking its a all in 1 tool for complex use of vast amounts of data that require real time computing. AI and only the fly predictive analysis. Its ability to manage the storage and computing simultaneously is its advantage. This is obviously a massive market that is growing exponentially . It is very much preferred from those who work directly in the industry of big data, even those who have only used traditional SQL storage and processing. I would love to own snowflake for the obvious reasons but cant justify the price despite being pretty liberal on evaluations for companies I like. For example I own Crowdstrike who is extremely expensive but also the sole leader in endpoint security (much like snowflake in it's industry). The cost is just too much here so a buyout is off the table and its priced for exponential growth alreadyThe competitors is pretty much every big tech company in the world most particularly Amazon. Microsoft google and oracle also offer products that compete. All are playing catchup and surprisingly are more expensive even with their ability to scale. Despite being far behind I think the risk is too great to own it at this price. That being said ive been wrong many times with these types of companies. OKTA , Zscaler , and Elastic being examples of companies I loved but couldn't pay for it at the time only for them to continue their moonshots.My strategy to get involved in this exponential growth of unstructured data is to invest in Mongodb ($MDB) which is also expensive but not at the level of Snowflake. MDB is not a competitor but part of a range of tools required to do complex analytics with large amounts of data. Hope this helps

Yes, very happy I decided to hold my position on RYTM since September despite the stock falling to 20.87 only as recently as 10 days ago. Although I remained cautiously optimistic, the FDA approval was certainly not a lock, so I was pleasantly surprised when I woke up and the stock “shot up” from 24.15 to 29.30 by 1:00 pm today – a 22% increase! I was also prepared for it to go the other way (had the FDA approval not come to pass) – or hold a wee-bit longer (as news on Nov 27 date was only an approximate one, and “not etched in stone”), and sell part or all of my position.For now I will hold, and possibly add shares, but at the same time watch the news closely (and also see if Stansberry will pump it up again, which I am expecting they may) and continue my cautious optimism. Only time will tell "how high this one can go”, although Travis might want to add his word on this:)