Friday File: Mampilly, Stansberry, Berkshire, Copper, and much more…

This was a really great Friday File

Another good writeup, Travis!I tend to think that Elon Musk is in the driver's seat on the TWTR purchase...time will tell.

Travis, it almost seems that the job description and characteristics of a newsletter author is quite similar to that of a used car salesman. No offense toward used car salesmen/women. Regards, Frank

Subscriber beware! There is a lot of juggling in the newsletter industry, and it may not necessarily be beneficial to the subscriber. There is quite a bit of changing the names of investment letters, quite a bit of changing the editors, relentless upsell to more expensive investment letters, and more upsell to a “complete group” of letters. I liked the advice of Chris Mayer, and I upgraded because of him to Bonner & Partners Founders Club and Bonner Private Portfolio in 2016. Mayer left at the end of 2018. Bonner & Partners joined with Casey Research, Palm Beach Research Group, and Jeff Clark to form the Legacy Research Group in early 2019. I was given Legacy Lifetime status, which in my opinion did not really make up for losing Chris Mayer’s investing advice, although it included “access to all 22 investment advisory newsletters published by Legacy Research” and “will also have access to all future products launched by Legacy Research”. Bonner & Partners is no longer part of Legacy Research Group and has been replaced by Rogue Economics with Nomi Prins and Eoin Treacy. Bill Bonner with Tom Dyson and Dan Denning left to form Bonner Private Research, which is independent of Legacy Research Group. I liked Bill, Dan, and Tom better than I like Nomi and Eoin. To top it all off, Legacy Research Group is not honoring access to all of their products. I do not have access to Earnings Trader, Jeff Clark Alliance, Palm Beach Venture, The Opportunistic Trader, and The S&P Trader. I rather doubt I would use these extra publications, but it galls me that they do not have integrity. They have twice denied that these are part of my subscription. Another subscription I had is the Bauman Letter, which I just extended in March. It was a decent letter with a modest price. I was informed this week that this is being replaced by the Green Zone Fortunes, as Ted Bauman is taking over a different product for Banyan Hill. It would have been nice to be given a refund as an option.

I really enjoyed the retrospective on the newsletter publishers and editors. My biggest problem with them is most of them are skirting the limits of ethics and morals- if not downright ethically challenged. Their biggest problem is that their business model heavily relies on suckers. And in a recession even the suckers grow smart quickly and the pool dries out gradually until the next bull market "rain." I have thrown a few of them a $49 dollars here and there to take a peek at what they offer...to be quickly inundated subsequently by their $5000 rip-off offers. For example Chaikin claims he has this super duper market monitoring tool and yet the guy can't offer one stock pick that can stay afloat during the bear market - not even one. When he finally suggested an oil play recently at the top of the oil boom, the energy sector decided to reverse course as people started to lose interest in the Ukraine-Russia war. The guys at Cabot always struck as reasonable. However, I parted ways with them because they refuse to publish their performance record for all to see. To my mind, a stock "expert" should at least be able to easily beat the S&P in a bull market and similarly do "better" on the down side in a bear market. Or at least have the integrity to divulge your portfolio's performance for your subscribers to peruse and make an informed decision. Otherwise, your newsletter is a waste of money or a down right fraud. And also, Cabot does not seem to have gotten the memo that we are in a bear market as their prices continue to rise in face of current reality. I have yet to see any $49 entry letter from them. On Bonner: he recently set up shop again with a few of his buddies. Collecting $99 for prognosticating and moralizing must be very hard to give-up- hence the multiple "retirements." I had been receiving his free emails. $99 was way to0 much for his mostly libertarian schtick. So recently, $99 became way too low for the exquisite stock-picking and right wing libertarian advice they dispensed. So they aimed their money sucking gun at the suckers...effective as of recently, they bumped the price to $299 or was it $259? At that point, I could not restrained myself and wrote them the following: "This is one steep price increase. For what? Buy gold, buy silver, buy utilities, hold cash. If one doesn't know that by now, one is a gambler - not an investor. I guess greed is a universal vice...so it's not just the predominant character trait of the "elite" - your favorite target group. Under the guise of inflation, even the cost-cutting, hold-on-to-your-wallet libertarians will show their true colors. Have you forgotten that you have been telling us not to be suckers? Does that advice apply solely when it comes to the "Feds"? Well in my libertarian book, your advice applies also to peddlers of hope and ideology. You have not yet earned a raise!" Travis, I am glad you are doing your best to help us hold on to our wallets. Proud of the work you do...keep it up! Junior Stockgumshoe Trainee :-)

a good one about Twitter and Elon Musk: https://youtu.be/XXdmIETK6-0

I've got to admit I'm really drawn to some of the commodity plays you mention. I read a report from Chris Machintosh going back to the last recessions showing how well a mixed basket of energy, agriculture, precious and industrial metals did compared to other equities and the yields are really attractive here to just sit and wait. Then on the other hand I look at Google and amazon and think maybe they are the new recession plays as they are so large and diversified they will profit more when the smaller tech companies struggle. Then I think bitcoin is cheap and should bottom first. Bloody hell I'm confused , maybe I should just have a lie down.

Hi Travis, as a long time Irregular, I've been following your writings for many years, and for some reason, I just realized I know almost nothing about your background - not that it really matters, as I know and respect you enough now that I don't see myself ever cancelling my subscription, and I understand this isn't a blog about you or your personal life, but I guess I'm just curious how you became so good at all this, apart from just reading books, etc. Maybe I'm forgetting, but I don't recall you ever writing about this. Given your valuation skills, I would guess you have a background as an analyst, but your bio doesn't say anything about that. It says you were a university professor - of finance, I assume? Why'd you decided to go out on your own? Again, just curious. But completely understand if you want to keep your personal life personal.

I believe Elon is on the hook for at least $1 billion, which would still be quite a deal for him given the mess he would be getting himself in by purchasing Twitter. He is so craven for attention, you wonder what he would not do to obtain it. At times Elon acts as if he is above the law; and his latest sleazy way to weasel out of a deal should not fly. I would not want to be a business partner of this man. He is a bit too Trumpian for my taste. I cannot wait for the market to start valuing TSLA as the automotive company that it actually is. The Fords, the Audis, the BMW's and the Benz's are on their way. Hopefully then the cult of personality will end, the cult followers will have learned their lesson and Elon's ego will have fallen back to earth. That will have been the best medicine for this man-child and for the rest of us. There is no question Elon can and has contributed a great deal to society...but so have many others without all this drama and annoyance. Take your med Elon or smoke your weed...but whatever it takes, leave us at peace for a little while. Ooof! Your success is our country's success. We will still cheer for you. All we ask is a little grace, class and humility in return. Oh, read Proverbs 16: 18-19 when you have a minute and give it some thought - even if you happen to not be a believer.

So interesting about Mampilly , McCall and Publishers. Once the latter have your several thousand bucks, you're a lot less of interest to them. I don't worry about Stock Gumshoe because you are the sole Newsletter writer whose soul is professional objectivity--and you have a heart to boot!