12 Comments
Member
7 August 19, 2022 8:15 pm
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20220511-can-gravity-batteries-solve-our-energy-storage-problemsI thought this was an interesting article. Batteries get all the press attention, but almost all of the world's existing energy storage is pumped-hydro which is efficient, but requires a particular geography.
Member
35 August 19, 2022 8:24 pm
My daughter works for STEM. Thanks for the update. I should add she's on the services side and she is supply chain management. They have been growing rapidly and she was given a lot of stock recently as a bonus.
Member
60 August 19, 2022 9:09 pm
I'm down about 33% in STEM and was becoming a little lukewarm on it. Your article was timely and I'll sit back and hold it a bit longer.
- Member 499August 19, 2022 9:11 pmMe too. So contemplating another, cheaper, nibble...
- Member 36August 19, 2022 10:22 pmme three...also own Fluence...great article as always Travis
Member
8 August 19, 2022 10:42 pm
The oil and gas energy companies are entering a bull market now. There is a worldwide shortage that is not going away anytime soon. They are stored energy with near term returns. They are generating huge FCF. Several of these energy companies are selling around three to four times FCF.
Member 22338August 19, 2022 11:14 pmTrue enough, though the shortage is political so and could disappear overnight. Lots of challenges in finding a balance in those companies between cash flow and investing for growth, but most of them look fantastic right now. If Warren Buffett agrees with you, you're off to a good start.
Member
25 August 20, 2022 9:33 am
After reading Travis' take on both FLNC and KEYS I'm wondering if the smarter buy would actually be in the companies creating the batteries, except for the fact that with the rare earth shortages such as lithium and graphite these companies will have trouble keeping up with demand. They also require intensive mining which is really destructive to the environment. I recently found a video on Amazon called Planet of the Humans, which was a sobering take on what we think of as clean energy. I'm thinking nuclear may see a real resurgence, but build out times for any new facilities would be 5 years out or more. Any thoughts from Travis or the Irregulars?
- Member 22338August 20, 2022 11:01 amCould be, but batteries are a tough business. The standard li-ion ones are somewhat commoditized, with four or five dominant producers, and the next-generation ones have yet to prove themselves or get to scale. It's often hard for component makers to get the best margin if they're not brand names -- if Fluence or Stem buys your batteries, puts them in a box with their management system-software, and slaps their own brand on them, then they are more likely to get a brand name and some margin over time.Maybe standard batteries are too important to be marginalized as "parts" over time, maybe not, but it's been hard for the battery Companies who aren't next-gen innovators. I haven't found an investment I like in that area yet.
- Member 1August 20, 2022 1:44 pmHi,just to add, there is no shortage of lithium as a raw material since resources in the world are manifold. What is lacking are mining, processing and recycling capacities (i.e. shortage along the entire value chain).One company I really like in the vast field of technological metals is Li-Cycle. This is of course a bit unrelated to energy storage, but might be of interest to some.Thanks for the great article, as always.Best
Member
348 August 20, 2022 11:59 am
Since STEM fell 9.5% and FLNC fell 6.5% on Friday they may be good buys now?
- Member 22338August 20, 2022 12:28 pmThey're just bouncing up and down with all the "growth" stocks at the moment, in the near term the prices will depend on interest rates and investor sentiment.
Member
1428 August 20, 2022 7:13 pm
Good analysis Travis. One correction, Keysight, as well as all of the Hewlett Packard spinoffs (A,HPE,HPQ and KEYS) fiscal year ends on 10/31/XX. Spent many pleasant years celebrating Halloween as the HP fiscal year came to an end. Regards, Frank
Member
6 August 27, 2022 11:29 pm
Travis, I failed to grasp what you saw in Fluence. But I will go in with you on STEM. Thanks for highlighting it. Green Energy is Big and will be much bigger. I failed to grab the Tesla, SolarEdge and Enphase ride. I would. Not touch Tesla with 10-foot pole unless price was cut by a third. And I don't mean a 3 for 1 stock split. I don't believe Tesla's price is sustainable with the approaching assault coming from the legacy luxury car companies. I am sure I will grab my rocket ride some day....it might just be ASTS or SAVA or ACLS. I am confident I will. In the meantime, I am staying cautious with my eyes wide open and ready to pounce.