12 Comments
Member
20 May 26, 2023 2:38 pm
So glad I stuck with NVDA when it was $130. Pays for a nice vacation now.
Member 22353May 26, 2023 2:57 pmNice to get a win, right?So... are you selling to pay for that vacation, or still holding?No "right" answer, just curious.- Member 64May 27, 2023 12:02 amTravis, Any thoughts on whether we will see a stock split announcement from NVDA if it continues to rocket?
- Member 22353May 27, 2023 9:11 amNo idea. The only indication we have is that they did a 1:4 stock split (or 4:1 if you prefer that logic) back in the summer of 2021, near the previous peak when the shares were in the $1,000 neighborhood. If their goal is just to keep the shares in the hundreds, that's a long way away... it's very hard to imagine NVDA becoming larger than Microsoft anytime soon, that's what it would take to push the shares above $1,000 today, but, we'll, improbable is not the same as impossible.(They did a bunch of splits in the early 2000s, too, when stock splits were a bit more common and expected, but the last one before that was in 2007).
- Member 64May 27, 2023 1:10 pmThanks -- appreciate the insight, especially contextualizing in relation to Microsoft.
- Member 55June 22, 2023 7:16 pmThat was asked at the annual meeting this morning. A very general and safe non-committal response followed.
Member
26 May 26, 2023 3:23 pm
I own NVDA but took some profit for 3X gain with average price of $138. Still hold some bought in low double digits. When it goes back down with reasonable valuations it may be time to add again. You live and learn from past lessons, and it feels good to take profits along the way.Travis, your service is unmatched, I am follower for many years. Thanks
Member
79 May 26, 2023 4:20 pm
FWIW Louis Navallier Growth Investor got in around 60, sold half at $300and advised selling half the remainder afterthe big jump 2 days ago.
- Member 22353May 27, 2023 12:06 pmThanks for the info... I remember Navellier teasing NVDA maybe five or six years ago... has his system held on for that long a time, or was he in and out and back in? His strategy usually sells out when there are big downturns, which NVDA has had a couple times since then, just curious how he handled that.
Member
9 May 26, 2023 5:20 pm
Travis Travis Travis...I told you on Monday I was holding my nose when I sold 80% of my NVIDIA position. Now I'm vomiting. I can honestly say that I sold for fear of a debt default and major market decline, and wanted to secure my profit. NVIDIA was and is my favorite company and while you are 100% correct about the analysts missing on this stock, I blame Washington for the massive profit I just missed out on. I see your new max buy price and will keep a close eye on when to jump back in. Enjoy the long weekend... the one that just got much longer for me. :)
- Member 22353May 26, 2023 5:36 pmIt sure can be frustrating, but try not to be too mad about making money... sometimes those big moves go the other way.
- Member 8May 27, 2023 10:57 amSame here, maybe if they tied the politicians pay to the debt ceiling like all federal spending , including Medicare payments, Social Security checks, and veterans benefits they would have an agreement in one day.
Member
66 May 26, 2023 6:14 pm
I started dabbling with options during the last year so this may be somewhat of a dumb comment/question. The Pfizer call option is at a strike price 60 percent higher than today. If you think there's a good chance it could hit that and it is a relatively stable stock why not just take a small position on it to try and capture that upside instead?
- Member 22353May 26, 2023 6:50 pmBecause of laziness, I guess, and a tendency to gamble from time to time... and because I don't generally buy large positions in pharma companies.This way, if it works out as I think it might, and Pfizer goes up by 100% or so over the next couple years, I'd get a gain on my speculative position of about 2,500%. If so, the value of that position, at that time, would be about the same as if I had committed 1.25% of my portfolio to buying Pfizer stock and got a 100% return on that.Buying the equity is a more sensible and safer strategy, with much less downside, but it's also more of a commitment, at least in my mind -- since I'm buying options, and only committing 0.1% of my portfolio to that option position, I can indulge myself with what is, at heart, a bet on a simple guess about the future, and I don't have to worry about 1% or even 0.5% of my portfolio being at risk if I was really wrong, and Pfizer drops by 40% for some other reason. I lose 0.1% of my portfolio, and that's a known amount and it's A-OK with me -- I wouldn't build my whole portfolio around these speculations, but I often have a total of a couple percent in these kinds of ideas.Here's how I think about it: These speculative options positions I put on from time to time are a low-commitment way to indulge myself with a bet on something that seems likely and profitable, but which I'm not going to spend several days researching, and which I won't be monitoring closely each quarter as we see how it proceeds. I size them so that they'll be meaningful contributors to the portfolio if they work out as I think they might, but will not be too much of a drag if they go to zero, and I don't worry about them.
- Member 66May 27, 2023 10:20 amThanks Travis for your detailed reply. With the speculative call options are you looking to acquire the stock or sell the options prior to expiration date?
- Member 22353May 27, 2023 10:34 amDon't know. That will depend on how the business looks two years from now.Coincidentally, I first bought into NVDA using call options many years ago, and have similarly built positions off an initial option speculation in the past (SHOP comes to mind). That's not how it always works out, of course, most of my call options speculations lose 100%, and I've cashed out much more often than I've exercised... but I try to have an open mind.
Member
44 May 27, 2023 9:21 am
Travis, does the NVDA results and surge in data center investing change your thoughts on Digitalbridge (DBRG)?
- Member 22353May 27, 2023 9:55 amNot particularly, though it could help if there's a real growth in data center demand, not just a big quarter or two of buying AI chips. I do have plenty of investments that are indirect plays on the growth in data centers (ATKR, WCC, AMT, KEYS, etc.), though I'm not really directly invested in owning the centers themselves right now, mostly just because I've become concerned that they're not as profitable as they look. I'm sure I'll do more cogitating on that in the future, but the NVDA news, so far hasn't completely upended my thinking on the broader data center business.
Member
504 May 27, 2023 10:46 am
Travis, again just excellent content from top to bottom! Thank you!As for NVDA, there was just so many articles going around before earnings to "sell your shares now" and lucky for me, I ignored them. I did, however, sell about 1/3 of my shares after the wonderful 25% post earnings bump to take 589% profit. I bought rhis batch of NVDA shares 3 and 1/2 years ago. Taking some profit (and risk) off the table feel good as that position was getting to be a bit too large.
Member
20 May 27, 2023 10:50 am
I bought $5000 of NVDA back in 2017 when you were chatting it up. (I know next to nothing about investing. Half of the terms you use in these newsletters are Greek to me.) I'm dithering around about selling it. I missed selling META at the recent top when I should have.....
- Member 20May 27, 2023 10:56 amI'm also wondering if I should just give up on the $5000 of Bluebird stocks that I own. They're worth less than when I bought them...
- Member 22353May 27, 2023 11:45 amDon't know anything about that one, early stage biotech pretty much never makes financial sense, the stocks are mostly traded based on clinical and regulatory progress, not diff I can understand (like revenue or income), and I do not have the education or temperament to judge drugs on their scientific potential. When I know that the person selling me a stock is likely to be 3X more informed about the science than I can ever be, I have a hard time investing.
- Member 22353May 27, 2023 11:41 amThe best thing you can do is have a clear understanding of why you own a stock, and how much risk you're willing to take. Nobody picks the tops and bottoms very well, and beating yourself up about missing the top is just a waste. Having a clear idea of what you think a company's long-term value is will help you get through the days of wild price gyrations -- you'll still get some wrong, but you'll waste less energy in "woulda shoulda" thinking.
- Member 20May 27, 2023 12:07 pmSounds like I should be investing in CD's and leave the stock market alone! Thanks for the input.
- Member 22353May 27, 2023 2:06 pmProbably not, At least not for the long term... but if you don't enjoy researching companies and stocks, the easy and cheaper alternative is happily accepting the average returns from an index fund.
Member
8 May 27, 2023 12:37 pm
NVDA has been the gift that just keeps on giving. Based on your free advice back in early 2014, I bought 4,000 shares of NVDA for a total investment of $64,000 over a one month period... that's about $16 a share on average. I sold half at $95/share based on my financial advisor's advice a few years later; then another 1,000 shares when it hit $195 a year later... total gains of about $335k at that point & very happy with your advice. I liquidated another 400+ shares for another investment & another $90k in profits. The 1:4 split occurred, I put some of those shares in a DAF as a way to give back & ended up still holding 2,000 shares. A month ago, seeing the rapid rise in value of NVDA's stock, I spoke with my broker & we decided to pull the sell I had placed at $330/share. I almost missed the May 25th spike; happened to be talking to a new friend about NVDA & he advised me to look at that day's jump. Whoa, baby! Needing denaro to pay off an equity line and needing cash to start building a new home, I called my broker and sold 1,000 shares at almost $385/share... those split shares cost me about $4 each. So debt paid, money in the bank, enough over my original $330/share sell price to pay most of the tax; & I still have 1,000 shares. Taking profits off the table is always a good policy, one my broker calls "a bag of money." So I've used that so far $800k in capital gains as a vehicle for growth in many ways: real estate, other safer investment funds, a few big ticket items (new truck & RV) & for giving (perhaps the most important part of investing).I should have done this sooner, but I just upgraded to a paid subscriber as a very small way of paying you back for your wonderful advice. Thank you, Travis; your advice is easy to grasp & always appreciated. Enjoy your weekend; the smile on my face from Thursday's action won't go away.
- Member 22353May 27, 2023 4:06 pmMy favorite kind of story, thanks for the update!
Member
83 May 28, 2023 5:42 pm
Nice summary. I purchased NVDA in 2017 or 2018 along with AMD and INTC because of the AI story. I had watched a documentary or an article about AI and decided to sell my Alibaba at that time due to trade issues with the US.So, I did an equal 3-way split purchase. NVDA almost immediately took a nosedive due to graphics cards not selling well on Bitcoin mining weakness. I held on because I knew that crypto was just a distraction.I sold INTC after a couple of years. Held on to AMD.I don't care too much about the comparison to CSCO. It just doesn't seem very comparable as a picks and shovels story.So, should I hold or sell into NVDA strength? I am going to hold. We are just in the very early innings of the AI story and tech is going to need every chip that is AI related.Which reminds me, I also have Marvell that I purchased a few months ago for some reason. It certainly wasn't for AI. Lucky happenstance.As for the indexes beating the average investor...I have been in the markets since 1997 when I purchased AAPL as my first stock. I have been beating the indexes ever since then. I think I average about a 15% return over the last ten years.
Member
June 12, 2023 5:29 pm
Travis, playing the devil's advocate, how much will a chip company that makes no chips but owns the IP be worth when China decides it's time to reclaim Taiwan?
- Member 22353June 13, 2023 8:35 amIf that happens and it leads to shutting down Taiwanese chip exports, then it would presumably destroy the revenue of almost all the fabless companies. Taiwan makes roughly 80% of the high-end chips in the world.The rest of the world is trying to catch up by building foundries elsewhere, including some owned by Taiwan Semiconductor in the U.S. and elsewhere, but it's going to take many years to meaningfully de-risk the reliance on Taiwan and China.I'd like to think that the world's dependence on Taiwan reduces the risk of a real shooting war over the strait... but it's obviously a real risk.
Member
22 June 16, 2023 8:16 am
I m enjoying your five year plan investment not had as much as you in total but a fifth is very interesting to put the best view the portfolio has gained 36% it was 38% minus and is now only 2.5% minus the pattern is that the portfolio is following the market, your very clever selections . Love your logic and straight from the shoulder opinions ,
- Member 22353June 16, 2023 9:25 amThanks bitetasty... I assume you're talking about my $100K Lock Box Portfolio, those are the small cap growth stocks I lock up for five years after buying. Had a rough year last year, for sure, since half of the portfolio was chosen in 2021 at much higher prices for those kinds of stocks, at one point the portfolio was down 30-40%, but it has been clawing back, partly because the stocks I bought in 2022 and 2023 were at much better prices -- now the full portfolio is only down 5% or so. The best performer is up 170% or so, the worst is still down almost 90%. We'll see where it goes, I still have four positions to add to that portfolio... just have to find 'em. Haven't found anything rational enough in the Artificial Intelligence space to add something along those lines, but who knows... maybe that will come.https://www.stockgumshoe.com/100k-lock-box-portfolio/
Member
55 June 22, 2023 7:31 pm
NVDA 6/22/2023 shareholders meeting transcript will be uploaded soon. This includes their current status, forward looking statements and a Q&A. https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-stockholder-meeting-set-for-june-22-individuals-can-participate-online