Google Gemini a false step or not?Dear Travis and all, since Google is the peak of all investments, I am worried. I would like to ask a comment on the news that came out about Gemini that (unfortunately for Google) have a too much marketing hype and with a communication style that makes it look like a montage of the whole video, so that it does not seem credible? Is it not that Google has made a big wrong step that undermines its credibility and therefore financial solidity in the future?
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I don’t think Google’s credibility, or the future path of AI, will be determined by whose early-stage AI projects seem the most polished or successful right now. I don’t worry about the iterative steps along the way, though I do think it’s likely that some combination of Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft will be the most powerful players in AI for a long time, if only because they’re the only ones who can finance the explosive investment in capacity and trailing if we have a market downturn, which we probably will someday…. and they’ve all been investing billions in AI for many years, though Alphabet is probably in the lead in that regard.
They could absolutely have a misstep, or a few missteps, but I think the antitrust suits, which could well be in appeals for years, are likely to have more of an impact on the financials of most of the big tech companies, including Alphabet, than any one AI project.
I’m still playing the long game with Alphabet/Google — plenty of risks, and plenty of exposure to the cycles of the economy since they’re primarily an advertising business, but they’re also the cheapest of the big tech stocks and I don’t think it’s likely that their leadership in search, AI, video or other areas will erode quickly or easily… and they could continue to make strong progress in new AI projects and Waymo and all the other stuff they’re always working on. People don’t think it’s worth paying a big premium for the shares right now, in the face of AI competition and the antitrust suits, and they might be right… but it’s not trading at a big premium, and I think the probability is that they’ll still be an indispensable global internet leader five years from now.
Others could disagree and I might be biased or too stubborn when it comes to this one, I’ve held my GOOG/GOOGL shares since 2005 and haven’t ever sold any… which means I’ve already held through some long periods of underperformance, and it worked out just fine.