12 Comments
Member
3 August 16, 2024 5:33 pm
Thanks for the update on Stansberry and Marketwise etc. Seems like Porter and Jeff Brown are not slowing down on their new Exegesis promotion of Six AI ventures that will make us all rich beyond our wildest dreams. Has anyone participated in the promo that can reveal the names of these companies or is it too soon to guess. Thanks.Andrew Simpson
Member 22306August 17, 2024 11:00 amHaven't seen that one yet, but I'll look for it.- Member 55August 22, 2024 2:43 pmI suggest that looking at Jeff Brown’s AI Emergency Meeting (hosted by Porter Stansberry) is worth the time… sort of like sitting through a must attend college lecture that has info you can use to pass the class. Not including their political sniper shots at the end I found the info interesting (but LONG) and laced with enough substance that spin-off research may produce useful investment grade leads.It is LONG and on my iPad there was not way to replay sections. I also found no way to grab a transcript. I was able to pause it to take a break. He did give his hot AI tip - CEG and three no-no AI stocks: IBM, Sound Hound and Big Bear AI. I found his discussion about these four to be useful.Maybe not useful for an AI engineer but I found this a fascinating update on this unfolding “industrial revolution” and there discussion contrasting today’s opportunities to the stocks which rose in the late 1990’s was an important history lesson.Their discussion about how robotics will play into this is not new but I found it most interesting. The next evolution AI (post GPT-40 model) which Jeff calls EXEGESIS AI (did he coin this word?) will be able to think, reason, learn and solve complex problems they said.While admitting job loss will result, Porter smiled and told us that we will have more time to be creative. I am thankful to be part of the group for whom this will most likely be true. But not even hinted at is how these thinking, reasoning, complex problem solving robots will compute how to gainfully employ wage earners working 2 or more jobs to pay bills they cannot afford. Also not discussed is - how to keep those who profit from wars using warrior robots to kill and maim to protect and further their ideologies?Opportunities yes indeed and challenges too… let’s keep the cards on the table and figure this out.
Member
504 August 16, 2024 6:40 pm
Thank you kindly for the Friday update, Travis!
Member
5 August 16, 2024 8:42 pm
Porter Stansberry just sent out a brand new promotion today and he's really going out on a limb this time. It's entitled "the end of Nividia?" where he claims that a "financial bloodbath in tech stocks" is imminent and he's not even limiting it to AI. He's talking about virtually all tech stocks and says:“We are in the midst of the greatest financial bubble of all time… Today's bubble was caused by the same thing that creates every bubble – enormous amounts of newly created credit."Then he promotes an undervalued “pick and shovel” play. I would be interested if someone can name the stock he's promoting but I'd also like to hear what Travis or anyone else thinks of the validity to his premise about the imminent financial blood bath in tech stocks.
- Member 22306August 16, 2024 9:25 pmI did write about a "big AI Die Up" pitch from Porter a while back (https://www.stockgumshoe.com/reviews/the-big-secret-on-wall-street-this-week/porters-big-ai-die-up-stocks/)... sounds similar. I'll see if his new one is different.
Member
29 August 16, 2024 8:44 pm
Regarding the above comments about a possible downturn in the marker, I'm fully on board with the hedging and elevated cash positions Travis mentioned. My reasoning...admittedly often faulty...is that the Fed may very well pass on a rate cut in September. In recent memory (since 1980) the Fed has avoided INITIATING a change in rate policy in the Sept-Oct months before a November presidential election. They clearly don't like being put in the spotlight regarding election influence, and certainly would be if they announced a cut. It would probably take a significant rise in the next unemployment stats to move them to act. If there is no Sept cut announced, it's probably an understatement to say the markets will not be pleased.
- Member 22306August 17, 2024 10:59 amThe market is definitely counting on a cut in September... and arguably on a steady diet of cuts for the next year.That can change, of course, unfortunately the hundreds of economists at the Fed are not really any better than anyone else at predicting the future.
- Member 41August 25, 2024 5:13 pmI'll see you a significant rise in unemployment and raise you 818K downward revision!
Member
14 August 17, 2024 8:15 am
At the end of the day, "well-managed " companies use excess cash to buy their own stock in order to drive up the value of the common stock; "poorly-managed" companies use debt to buy back their own stock in order to drive up the value of the common stock. The idea that the CEO knows the "true value" of the common stock and is buying it back at a bargain price and thereby adding additional value to the corporation, is pure fiction. Or, maybe, insider trading.
- Member 22306August 17, 2024 10:57 amI don't agree, I think some companies buy back their own stock steadily, or buy when the stock is at relatively low valuations, and either is fine... that gradually increases the value of the remaining shares. The problem comes when they buy at nosebleed valuations just to try to keep the party going and boost the stock price.... that just destroys shareholder value over the long term.
Member
August 17, 2024 1:25 pm
Does anyone know what Steve Sjuggerud is up to? I used to enjoy reading True Wealth when he was (allegedly) the author; although I don't believe I profited much - if any-- from his recommendations.
- Member 22306August 17, 2024 2:10 pmI think he retired from the Board around the time the SPAC deal started looking terrible, maybe late 2022 or early 2023, though as I recall he stopped doing most of the writing on his letters before that.
Member
43 August 18, 2024 7:13 am
Travis, do you have a view on how the current Celsius environment works its way?The energy industry is in the midst of a competitive price war. Aggressive promotions - led by Red Bull - are the reason why industry growth has gone from +10% to -2% (promotions are a contra-revenue item). I think that is the bigger risk, than a general slowdown in consumer spending.Seems to be coinciding with Red Bull’s competitive “healthier” non-sugar energy drink to go after Celsius demo/user. Red Bull is probably 20x the size of CELH, so this is giving the market fits and the reason for the CELH collapse in recent months. Not sure if you see any corollaries to other situations in the past that made you feel good about how this gets resolved for CELH.Thanks for your thoughts.
- Member 22306August 18, 2024 10:10 amI don't know how it plays out, I'm mostly just assuming that since they've built good market share and a niche, they're likely to maintain it and could keep growing. There are certainly cases where that didn't work, like Tab losing out to Diet Coke, I don't think we'll really be certain that Celsius has built a strong brand for a few years... but to me it looks and feels like they have
- Member 494August 19, 2024 4:54 pmgrowthguy, Could you expand a little, on your idea that 'promotions are a contra-revenue item'? Am i, perhaps, not the only one who gets sick of ads and quits buying the product?
