12 Comments
Member
8 August 23, 2024 5:27 pm
Would anyone be interested in splitting the cost of a subscription to a biotech analysis company like ProHost or the Medical Technology Stock Letter? Anyone using /evaluating them? Paul at keeper.001@aol.com
- Member 581August 23, 2024 7:07 pmThey are both practically worthless. Biopub is pretty good. The editors understand the field much better than any other publication, but the actual material is extremely spotty and of little practical value. There is no consistent coverage of anything in particular. If you read the thread carefully you may pick up something of value if you know enough to sift out all that is of no value.
- Member 34August 24, 2024 6:59 pmJust buy XBI
Member
34 August 24, 2024 6:57 pm
Travis, I think it's worthwhile to be cautious about investing in anything that could be affected by Chinese overproduction or "dumping" or just plain superiority. To wit, I avoid the following sectors almost completely: (1) solar panels; (2) automakers and especially EV makers; (3) steel, aluminum, coal; (4) electronics/appliances; (5) legacy microchips, like TXN, NXPI, ADI. I'm wary of robotics and lithium-ion batteries, although most of those competitors are in Asia.Generally, too, I am avoiding oil and gas E&P companies and copper and base-metal miners until we get on the other side of this looming recession.Finally, on gold miners, I have had nice success following Bill Fleckenstein and Fred Hickey. Four of my top ten most profitable holdings are miners. The key is essentially to avoid jurisdictional risk, which means limiting your investments to Canada-focused producers, and of course avoiding the penny-stock juniors.
Member 22308August 24, 2024 8:54 pmThanks... seems that recession has been "looking" but not hitting for a couple years. We'll see if we're all quick enough to catch the next bottom :)- Member 34August 27, 2024 3:14 pmFair point about the recession. But with the Sahm Rule and Gundlach Indicator having triggered and the yield curve nearly uninverted, the risks seem more acute then they've been in quite some time.
- Member 22308August 28, 2024 10:02 amI give up on trying to predict recessions, the economy is so different than it has been in the past... but I agree, the risks of a really bad stock market are more acute than they've been in a while. If only because valuations remain extended.Doesn't mean we'll see a crash, but it does mean we should have low expectations for average gains from this point, over the next 5-10 years.
Member
4 August 25, 2024 1:54 pm
Gold Mining stocks and a story that brings a smile
- Member 4August 25, 2024 1:55 pmAs Always Travis, Thank you for your research and this time for your comments about gold mining companies. Your writings brought a smile as I remember years ago, following Ivan Lo's suggestion, from his free Canadian newsletter, The Equedia Letter, where in he suggested buying NewMarket Gold at $0.62/share. We bought a ton. Later Newmarket was BOT by Kirkland who was later BOT by Agnicoβ¦With a smile we still hold thousands of Anico shares at ~$81/share.
Member
644 August 26, 2024 10:08 am
Hi Travis, the Friday File is not listed in 'recent articles'. It's only viewable thru 'premium content'
- Member 22308August 26, 2024 3:42 pmThanks for letting me know, will fix.
Member
111 August 30, 2024 3:11 pm
Bit late reading this. Fantastic as always. Was just going to ask about your thoughts on ARM holdings as I've often thought about buying it as it was a UK tech darling and a NVIDIA target. Then you reminded me why not to in the next sentence :-) 'Never say never, but always think about the odds' is pretty prophetic quote to bear in mind. I wish I would have done that more with some of the stocks in my portfolio. I have a lot of gold stocks including the royalties you owned in the past such as Sprott and Osisko (royalty company not the developer) I was just too lazy to sell them when you did. They have been my best two performers in my gold sector (so thanks for those) which otherwise has been really frustrating with gold prices at record highs. Conversely I got scared out of the NVIDIA and trade desk valuations far too early, so I need to take your approach of not selling the whole position more seriously, it would have saved me a lot of regrets.
- Member 22308August 30, 2024 5:19 pmThanks Shaun. A lot of investing is about accepting that a lot of your decisions are going to be "wrong" in the fullness of time... so when possible, especially when your level of certainty is low, make the decisions smaller.