This is a teaser pitch that the Motley Fool sent around earlier this week…

“This stock has turned thousands of Americans into millionaires

And the team at Motley Fool Stock Advisor is convinced that this stock is not done rewarding long-term investors.

“When a Nevada man nicknamed, ‘Forty-dollar Frank’ first purchased his dream vacation home in Tahoe, he gathered his family on the porch for a group hug… and to give thanks to 1 stock.”

That’s what we all want, right? The stock pick that changes our lives and makes life better or more fun?

And that’s what the Motley Fool is hinting at with their “millionaire maker” stock pick that they’re teasing to potential subscribers of Motley Fool Stock Advisor (first year sale price $59, renews at “then current price” — generally around $199/yr).

They give some other tantalizing hints about past riches made possible, too…

“A New Jersey man spent his time buying and selling model trains while making millions from this same stock.

“A man from Kansas saved his struggling small business thanks to this same stock.

“The Journal estimates over 300 families in Portland Oregon alone became millionaires due to this same stock.”

So that’s actually enough to ID the stock, if you happen to follow the story… but we’ll leave you in suspense for a moment. What else does the Motley Fool say about this one, and why do they think you should buy it now?

“It’s balance sheet is an absolute fortress (so you can sleep easily when you invest in this company)… it generated an astounding $22.3 billion in free cash flow over the last 12 months.”

OK, so no surprise that this is going to be a very big company — not many companies are big enough to generate that much cash flow. And one more clue:

“It’s only trading at just 1.3 times book value!

“So there is still time for you to cash in.”

Who is it, then? Well, sadly we have to downgrade that trailing cash flow to $19.9 billion now that we have the numbers from the last quarter (it has been $22.3 billion at times in the past, though that number seems cribbed from old Motley Fool ads — we covered a very similar ad four years ago)… but this is, as you might have guessed, good ol’ Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A if you bathe in a solid gold tub, BRK-B if, like me, you’re a bit more modest — each A share equals 1,500 B shares).

And if it’s any consolation, the quarterly cash flow doesn’t mean much for this company. It’s all about building that cash flow and asset value over time.

And, well, I don’t know what I can add to an understanding of Berkshire Hathaway — it’s by far my largest position, and I’ve owned the shares since 2005… though it hasn’t changed my life dramatically or enabled me to build a huge model train collection, sadly, those stories are about the folks who bought Berkshire shares when Buffett was much less well-known in the 1970s and early 80s. Those stories are pulled from a Wall Street Journal article that ran a few years ago, detailing the many millionaires created by an early “buy and hold” decision on Berkshire shares. That falls in the category of “investing pornography” — maybe it will spark some daydreams, but that’s not going to happen to you. At least, not with Berkshire Hathaway.

Of course, if you go back earlier it’s not millionaires you’re looking at, but billionaires — some truly massive fortunes are bouncing around Omaha thanks to the folks who joined up with Warren’s partnership in the 1960s. But still, buying in the 70s or 80s was extremely lucrative for the patient (and yes, you would have had to be patient — and sit through a few rough periods, Berkshire badly lagged the market for years in the 90s and the stock lost a third of its value in the tech wreck, then dropped in half from its highs in 2007 when the mortgage mania and financial crisis took down the market. Even with what turned out to be one of the great success stories in American investing history, holding on through the whole ride would have been HARD for most people… everyone at the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting has stories about their children and grandchildren mocking them and telling them they should sell their Berkshire to buy something cooler).

So what’s the story now? Well, four years ago we got pitched that Tom Gardner was “tripling down” on the stock at about $200, when it was also bouncing around at about 1.3-1.4X book value… and, as coincidence would have it, that’s the general range where buying more Berkshire becomes attractive to me.

That doesn’t mean it’s going to beat the market. In fact, it could easily do worse than the S&P 500 for long chunks of time — the conglomerate is well-insulated by its huge cash position, very low debt, and low-cost leverage from GEICO and their other massive insurance businesses, but they’ll have divisions that do poorly sometimes (they’re quite exposed to housing, banking, railroads, and some major industrial sectors of the economy that could have bad periods, for example), and there could easily be times when investors panic out of all stocks and, for some of them, selling Berkshire Hathaway at a profit will feel better than selling their more volatile stocks that are down 60%.

My expectation with Berkshire Hathaway is that it will continue to institutionalize the leadership qualities that Buffett has shown in investing and hands-off management and speedy acquisitions, so that the folks who follow in Buffett’s footsteps as leaders of the company will be able to keep the culture intact and keep moving the giant machine forward… even if we should expect them to not be quite as unique as Uncle Warren.

They’ve become clearer about the succession process in recent years, as Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger continue to outrun the actuarial tables, so we now know that Berkshire Hathaway Energy head Greg Abel will take over as CEO if Warren can no longer fill the job, leading the non-insurance businesses, and Berkshire insurance head honcho Ajit Jain will lead the insurance businesses. Investments, like the massive $125 billion stake in Apple (AAPL), will be managed by some combination of the former hedge fund guys Warren has brought on over the past decade to manage chunks of the portfolio, notably Ted Weschler and Tood Coombs.

And as long as Buffett is at the helm, I expect Berkshire to get the first call during any financial panic because of its fast decisionmaking and ready supply of cash, and, perhaps more importantly, because a big “lifesaving” investment from Berkshire can also spur a huge sentiment swing for a faltering stock and pull them out of a tailspin. I bet he’ll have one more opportunity to make some great bear-market investments for Berkshire shareholders… though you never know. He has made major moves this year, including a gusher of stock purchases back in the first quarter, particularly in the energy space (Occidental Petroleum (OXY) and Chevron (CVX), which are both top ten positions for Berkshire now), and the market still watches closely when Buffett makes a move — Berkshire disclosed a $4 billion stake in Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) last quarter, one of the biggest companies in the world, and the stock jumped 10% that day.

I’m quite biased here, since Berkshire is a stock I write and think about a lot and have held for longer than almost any other stock in my Real Money Portfolio (second only to Alphabet (GOOG)), but I’d agree that this is a solid investment — I don’t think it will be a life-changing millionaire-maker for anyone, they’re not going to be able to grow as fast as they did in the 70s and 80s even if Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger come to work tomorrow with the best investment ideas they’ve ever had, not with a market cap of $500 billion, but I do like Berkshire more than I like owning the S&P 500 Index (I own both, to be clear), and I think Berkshire still has a decent chance of beating the market over time, even if that’s because it will likely be better than average during future bear markets.

This is what I wrote in June, when I was buying a few more Berkshire (that turned out to be close to the bottom for the year, though of course I didn’t know that at the time):

“If you want to hide from the market without really getting out of the market, Berkshire would be one of my favorite places — there will be volatility, I’m sure, but other than the brief panic in March of 2020 this is about as inexpensive as Berkshire Hathaway shares have been in a decade.

“I think the only reason to avoid Berkshire here, other than preference for a stock that you think has more exciting upside, is if you believe Munger and Buffett will hit senility and make rash and foolish choices, with the board not stepping in until it’s too late, because of loyalty or a habit of passive acceptance of Buffett’s decisions… and I guess that’s possible — but after seeing them at the Annual Meeting again last month, and seeing the strengthening of the leadership team as well as Charlie and Warren’s own performance for the crowd, I’m not worried. Warren will have his 92nd birthday a few weeks after my 52nd birthday this year, so I know he won’t be at the helm when I’m in my 70s, and the story and my opinion about the company could change — but I think the culture of Berkshier will persist, and the value of their hundreds of operating companies and outside investments will grow over time, even if the next generation of executives and decision-makers, folks like Greg Abel, Ajit Jain, and investment managers Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, doesn’t get nearly as much attention on CNBC as Warren does. There’s only one Warren Buffett, but he has built something that I think can endure.”

(If you want some deeper thoughts on why I like Berkshire and Markel so much, by the way, my much longer piece following my most recent visit to Omaha in the Spring is here).

Berkshire has beaten the S&P 500 by a bit in the ensuing six months, roughly a 13% gain to the market’s 7% gain, and it’s not quite as inexpensive as it was then… but it’s still firmly “reasonable.” You can wait for real bargains in Berkshire shares, they do come along from time to time… but, of course, they’ll probably come at a time when buying anything will make you heart palpitate with fear. I’m happy to buy more Berkshire whenever it’s reasonably valued, and hold on tight.

Throughout the last three years of craziness, Berkshire has had periods where they both outperformed and underperformed the broad market — as of today, the race is pretty close — Berkshire has a total return of 37%, the broad market, with dividends reinvested, 32% (Berkshire doesn’t pay dividends).

And the story is similar over the past ten years…

So maybe don’t expect drama.

Nobody is going to get rich running a newsletter that recommends one of America’s best-known stocks, run by Warren Buffett, by far its best-known investing legend, but that doesn’t mean it’s a dumb idea… it’s just, perhaps, a hard idea to sell as a brilliant insight.

Whitney Tilson is the other person who has banged the drum for Berkshire Hathaway in newsletterland since he started publishing, he called it “America’s #1 Retirement Stock” about four years ago when he was launching his Empire Financial publishing business… but he has also been a major Buffett fan for decades, since well before he joined the ink stained wretches in the newsletter trenches… and that’s about it.

Everyone loves Warren Buffett, but nobody can turn his company into a sexy story that sells newsletters very well… they’d much rather churn through smaller ideas looking for the “next Berkshire Hathaway” — but there probably won’t be another Berkshire, so maybe that means we should buy more of the original.

(A short list of the “next Berkshire Hathaway” pitches? That would be headlined by Markel (MKL), the company which most closely emulates Berkshire’s business model, followed closely by Prem Watsa’s Fairfax Financial (FFH.TO, FRHFH) in Canada, and include Leucadia (now Jefferies (J)), and other conglomerates like Sears Holdings (fail), Biglari Holdings (BH), Loews (L), and sketchier attempts like Philip Falcone’s HC2 Holdings (now Innovate (VATE)). Some interesting companies in there, and I love and own Markel (though Berkshire is currently an easier buy), but nobody has taken the championship belt from Warren and Charlie yet.)

How about you, dear friends? Wanna get on board with 92-year-old Uncle Warren and his sidekick Charlie Munger, who will turn 99 in a couple weeks? Is there something smaller and sexier that draws your eye? Have a “next Berkshire” you like that we should think about buying? Do you think just an S&P 500 index fund and “buying the market” will do as well or better than buying this gigantor insurance conglomerate? Let us know with a comment below. Don’t worry, we don’t bite.

Disclosure: I own shares of Berkshire Hathaway, Alphabet and Markel among the companies mentioned above. I will not trade in any covered stock for at least three days, per Stock Gumshoe’s trading rules.