This article was originally published on January 11, but the Casey folks are promoting these same five stocks quite similarly with the bait of their “Become a Marijuana Millionaire in 2018” report, focusing on the impending Canadian legalization this summer, so we’re re-posting our January article here to answer some reader questions. The five stocks discussed last time around still seem to be identical (though they’ve added another one, which I haven’t looked at)… and if you’re worried that you’ve missed out, well, rest assured that the five stocks have not done well since they were teased as millionaire-makers in that “Marijuana Summit” presentation in January, I’ll include a chart on their performance-to-date at the end of this article.
But other than that, what follows has not been updated or revised since January… enjoy!
–From 1/11/18–
Can you still “make a fortune on the marijuana boom of 2018?” The Casey folks are out with a pitch about the new wave of recreational pot sales, spurred by California’s legalization and Canada’s impending legalization.
Justin Spittler and Nick Giambruno are the analysts Casey had on the presentation, and their goal is to “get in early” and “become the next marijuana millionaire” during this marijuana investing mania. The offer they’re making is a two-year subscription to Crisis Investing, for which they’ve teased some marijuana stocks in the past, only this time around they’re selling it at $1,795 for two years with no refunds (and, presumably, no refunds for those renewals that come through at $1,795 a year after that).
The hook is that there’s a guarantee that you’ll have “the chance to make 500% gains” on each of the five stocks they’re teasing in this presentation… which is obviously irrational based on the actual financials of most pot stocks in the near future, so they must be either using a far-in-the-distance deadline for those 500% gains or betting that there will be another wild spike in the pot stocks. Which there has again been, to some degree, over the past couple months, largely thanks to the Canada and California anticipation.
Oh, and that “guarantee” about all five of them reaching 500% returns? That’s not a “refund” guarantee, it’s a “we’ll give you another year for free” guarantee — which, of course, costs them nothing and is a pretty standard kind of guarantee for these higher-dollar newsletters or late. (“If you’re disappointed enough in this service to call and complain, we’ll give you more of this thing that you didn’t like, free!”)
So, anyway, what stocks did they tease in their “presentation” yesterday? Let’s feed the clues to the Thinkolator and see what we find… I’ve pulled what quotes I could from the presentation, but they didn’t provide a transcript and I almost poked my eyes out a few times having to listen to it all, so it’s possible that my wording is off a little bit on some of the quoted clues… consider those to be paraphrasing, please, not direct quotes.
The first one is teased as a Real Estate Investment Trust and the “safest bet” …
“The safest bet in marijuana… a dividend paying stock that gives you ownership of some of the most valuable real estate”
This one must be a stock we’ve had on the watchlist for a while, Innovative Industrial Properties (IIPR). I put this on the watchlist because REITs that specialize can often be compelling — mostly because specialized REITs, who rent to tenants who are otherwise hard to serve or have facilities that are somehow difficult to replicate, can earn higher cap rates on their properties (that’s the term usually used for the cash earnings of a building or property — so a cookie cutter office building might have a cap rate of 5%, for example, indicating that cash earnings per year are about 5% of the purchase price, but a hospital might have a cap rate of 7% or a marijuana production facility might be at well over 10% (IIPR reported acquiring their earliest properties at a 13% cap rate, which is exceptional). That enables faster cash flow growth, and therefore faster dividend growth.
I still like the idea of this one, though it’s very early and they don’t have many properties yet — they haven’t been builders of properties, but have instead done “sale/leaseback” deals with a couple of growers to acquire properties as they begin to build the portfolio. They would get better scale if they could ramp up and buy a competitor like Kalyx Development, though I don’t know if that’s actually feasible (Kalyx is another marijuana landlord, they almost became a publicly traded REIT by merging with a SPAC last year but the deal fell through — so they’re private still).
Right now the valuation is a bit tough, since IIPR is trading at almost twice its book value — and that book value should be pretty fair, since it’s based on acquisitions they’ve made over the past year or so. But certainly they’re a far safer bet than most of the actual marijuana growers, since they don’t have a particular bet placed on marijuana prices, or even on legalization progress (so far, their facilities are rented by medical marijuana growing companies… which are probably less likely to face regulatory challenges than recreational pot companies).
IIPR is still quite small, roughly $120 million in market cap. If this were a normal sector, I’d suggest waiting it out for better prices… partly because to grow they’ll need to buy more properties, and to buy more properties they’ll need to raise more money, which probably means issuing more stock, and that has a tendency to depress the share price on dilution fears (even though almost all REITs have to sell shares to grow, and a 3% cost of capital — that’s their current dividend — is not so bad if your cap rate is in the low teens, that gives a lot of room for high cash margins, which can also help to fund growth).
But since there’s also the possibility that IIPR could just get a super-loopy valuation on marijuana enthusiasm (instead of just the “awfully expensive” valuation it’s at today), it might make sense to nibble now and hope for better prices later. After watching this for a bit and looking it over again as I was writing it up for you today, that’s what I decided to do today — I missed out on the chance to buy at the weakest part of the stock price fall after Attorney General Jeff Sessions put a scare into marijuana investors last week (it went from $36 to $26 in the space of about a day, but bounced back to the low $30s pretty quickly), but I’ll go ahead and enter a small position now and watch for other opportunities. I’ll be writing in more detail about that for the Irregulars later as I update my Real Money Portfolio.
This stock could easily fall 50%, which is unusually risky for a REIT, but pretty safe for a marijuana-related stock — that’s a lot better than the downside risk of 90%+ that many operating marijuana stocks might face during manic times like this. The upside, of course, is also far less dramatic — the stock is not going to rise 500% anytime soon, though there’s a chance that they can grow nicely for years if they’re able to buy more high-return properties… particularly if they’re able to use the debt markets to lever up their balance sheet in acquiring new properties, which can really boost REIT returns and dividends if done strategically. The real goal here is rapid dividend growth, since REITS that post high dividend growth rates tend to really get investors excited.
There’s also at least one other property-and-facility stock that gets some attention in the marijuana space, Americann (ACAN) — ACAN has talked about converting to REIT status, and they say they offer “a comprehensive, turnkey package of services that includes consulting, design, construction and financing to approved and licensed marijuana operators throughout the United States,” but there’s not actually any rental revenue or dividend payment to show for it yet, and I don’t believe they’ve done their REIT conversion (I could be wrong, but all the REIT chatter I saw from them talked up converting “someday,” and that was in 2016). They also indicate that they invest in other cannabis-related companies, but as of the last filing their balance sheet doesn’t indicate that they own anything of particular value just yet… perhaps that has changed since September, or they have “hidden assets” somewhere, but often the story gets well ahead of the business development with these kinds of stocks.
Another one?
“Half of the marijuana patients in Canada as its customers… last year they started working on their recreational marijuana e-commerce site… an investment in this company is just like investing in Amazon when it was $20 a share.”
That’s almost certainly Canopy Growth (WEED in Toronto, TWMJF OTC in the US), the Canadian industry leader and probably the closest thing we have to a marijuana “blue chip” stock these days…. though it gets so much attention for this market-leading position that it’s again trading at a fully ludicrous valuation of well over 100X trailing sales, as investors anticipate a huge change with the recreational marijuana legalization in Canada that’s expected to go “live” this Summer (there are some other big players in Canada, too, like Aurora Cannabis… and Aurora is even more nutty at ~180X sales).
Canopy has always been the “real” marijuana stock I’d be most comfortable with, given its potential to develop the first really powerful brand in the consumer marijuana space, and the solid scale it has as it tries to grow the market, but I’ve never been willing to pay the steep premium price the shares have traded at for years now, and it’s hard to take a stock seriously that trades at this kind of valuation.
That said, your opinion could certainly differ. I’m perhaps too much of a fuddy-duddy on these stocks — and I said much the same thing about Canopy back when Giambruno was first pitching it as the “Amazon of Weed” back in October, so my caution there has resulted in missing a gain of about 150% in the past few months.
What else do they hint at? They pitch the “Home Depot of Pot” and a sort of “picks and shovels” supplier to the industry thusly…
“Sell the goods and services that every grower needs, they’re on their way to becoming the home depot of pot.”
That’s not a lot of clues, but we get a little more later in the presentation:
“This company is where Home Depot was back in 1981, when it was just going public with a few stores in Georgia.
“One stop shop for hydroponics, soils, pest control, ventilation fans, etc.
“Stores in four states, foothold in California. Proven model but small enough to grow off the charts.”
We’re also told that there’s little competition — products aren’t available at hardware stores or on Amazon, no major retailer competes. Sales have almost doubled every year since 2014. Top picks and shovels play in the green gold rush.
That’s not enough of a clue to be definitive, of course, but this is very likely the little retailer GrowGeneration (GRWG). They have a bunch of stores in Colorado selling hydroponic growing supplies, and have also begun to build a presence in California, Nevada and Washington State. You can see their investor presentation from November here, which details their expansion plans (most of the other legalization states) and their strategy to consolidate the hydroponics retail industry to become a major player and become a reliable supplier to the surging number of growers nationwide — but so far they have just 14 stores, so they’re quite tiny.
And, perhaps thanks largely to Casey’s attention, the stock jumped about 50% today. so that makes it a challenging one to buy, should you be interested, but I don’t know a lot else about them… they’re small, they’re not yet profitable, the goods they sell have pretty good gross margins so they ought to be able to achieve economies of scale at some point (though I don’t know when), and they do have impressive same store sales growth numbers — which you might expect, for a company that’s basically still a startup in a very fast-growing industry.
I like this a lot better than I like the growers, just because the valuation is not as nutty and it’s a much easier business to understand (for most growers, we still really have no idea what the pricing will be like for regulated recreational marijuana, or whether legalization will bring prices down enough to really do away with the black market), but I expect they’ll be raising money to do more acquisitions pretty soon — they only have about $2 million in cash as of the September report (assuming they haven’t raised any since, I haven’t checked), and hydroponics stores are not likely to be selling themselves at discount valuations right now.
If you like the general idea of supplying materials but don’t like such a small retailer, you might take a look, too, at Scott’s Miracle Gro (SMG), the fertilizer (and other stuff) maker and seller that most of us know from its Miracle Gro line… but which has also spent a fair amount of money building up a specialty indoor hydroponics product line over the past couple years, with the CEO expressly focusing on becoming a major supplier to the legal marijuana industry. This wasn’t hinted at in the ad, to be clear, it’s just a stock that comes to mind every now and again.
Hydroponics is still not the biggest part of SMG’s business, as you might guess, but it’s a larger portion of their business than I would have anticipated — they break out this hydroponics business under the Hawthorne name, and as of last quarter Hawthorne accounted for about 10% of revenues and is growing substantially faster (both organically and through acquisitions) than their core business, though the operating margins are currently lower than the rest of the business. But it is meaningful… with $35.5 million in operating profits last year on $287 million in sales… so even though it’s not as big a deal as sales of Miracle-Gro (the core business had $2.1 billion in sales), it’s still certainly meaningful.
The core business is also growing, so analysts expect roughly 10% earnings growth per year for the next few years — and at $110 a share, the stock is trading at about 25X next year’s earnings. So that’s a fairly steep price to pay for that level of growth, but if marijuana demand helps to drive earnings surprises perhaps they can do better than the analysts expect… and it’s not steep at all if you compare them to most companies that are more directly related to marijuana, which are, in the main, not even profitable, so it’s really just a matter of perception and what investors are looking for. Certainly we’ve seen plenty of financial sector stocks have minor interest in bitcoin or blockchain technologies and get a surprisingly rich valuation based on that almost immaterial connection to the hot bitcoin story, so far stranger things have happened.
What else?
The next one is cited on the order form as “the company supplying the product that every legal marijuana sale in the country requires” … what does that mean?
Well, in this case they’re talking about packaging. Which lends itself to a stock that has been pitched before, Kush Bottles (KSHB). I don’t know if that’s actually the match or not, but it’s a reasonable guess… and another stock that has roughly doubled over the past two weeks.
Here’s what else they say about it:
“One thing better than anyone else… packaging for marijuana. Every sale requires special containers, this company has quadrupled customer base and price is still near recent IPO price. This could shoot higher as California begins selling in quantity.”
Could be, I don’t know. They do have sales, and the stock is valued now at “only” 17X sales… and until a couple weeks ago it was still trading pretty close to the IPO price (it went public at a little over $2 a share two years ago).
My concern would be the sustainability of any advantage or pricing power they might have in the marijuana packaging business, since they certainly aren’t the only company selling packaging that’s approved for marijuana, and growing industries bring in growing competition from suppliers.
Kush was pitched by Ray Blanco about a year ago near $3 a share, and I was fairly skeptical of it back then, too — the stock was pretty quiet for most of 2017, but took off just recently and is now above $5… though it also did turn profitable, which cheered investors some (for the August quarter, they had their best numbers yet — $8.6 million in sales, $200,000 in profit).
That’s still a hard business to value at $300 million, but it is, at least, moving in the right direction — and who knows, if they turn out to have some kind of real “lock” on the market for some reason, either because of industry relationships or regulatory requirements, and competition doesn’t emerge (that could be a pretty big “if”), they might grow into that valuation if sales are as phenomenal as hoped for in California and elsewhere. Not my cup of tea, but perhaps it will appeal to you.
But wait, we’re not done! One more for you…
“This company is unlike anything ever seen in the marijuana business… they have the one thing that every single grower in the industry needs.
“90 cent penny pot stock seen having huge returns, like their inspiration in the mining industry.”
That “one thing every grower needs” must be either distribution or cash, I imagine… and the references to the mining industry give us the determinative clue that tells us, yes, we’re again seeing someone tease Cannabis Wheaton (CBW on the Venture Exchange in Canada, CBWTF OTC in the US).
Cannabis Wheaton is one where the story always appeals to me on the surface — their general strategy is “cannabis streaming”, sort of like the royalties and streaming deals that miners often use to fund development, and which were so lucrative for Wheaton Precious Metals (no relation, but their inspiration), Franco-Nevada and others. In this case, they help fund growers, get them distribution, and receive a share of production in return — but the financials have never made sense to me unless you assume that the price of marijuana is going to skyrocket and you’re convinced that Cannabis Wheaton will be able to easily raise nondilutive capital to fund all the “streaming” deals they’ve agreed to.
I wrote in more detail about this one over the Summer, when Giambruno was first pitching this stock for Casey’s Crisis Investing, so you can see my thoughts on it there… I’ve also commented on it in a few Friday Files as I keep getting tempted to look at the shares again, but the financials look worse each time I do so.
So, again, here’s one that I’ve missed as it has doubled — streaming companies are essentially financial firms, and valuing them at a massive premium to their book value seems to me to be a mistake.
There you have it, the answers for your top five Casey marijuana stocks, as best as the Thinkolator can figger ’em… and my largely conservative thoughts on those companies. I know a great many of you have been far more aggressive at investing in pot stocks, and have enjoyed massive returns (hopefully none of you have been stuck with the 90%+ losses that many of the juniors have had following those parabolic moves after the various legalization votes), so if you’d like to take the bullish side of that argument and share why you think any of these stocks (or other favorites you might have) are destined for greatness, well, feel free to opine with a comment below.
These are, in the main, real companies with real businesses, unlike some of the pot-themed or bitcoin-themed junk that gets promoted to the skies, so there are worse places to be if you like this general trend… they’re just not at “easy to buy valuations.” I might be wrong to be skeptical or conservative in this space, as I’ve been wrong many times before with past manias — only you can make that call for your portfolio.
—
Back to April 30 now… and as promised, here’s that chart to illustrate what those five stocks teased have done since they were, sez the Thinkolator, touted by the Casey folks in January:
So as you can see, the urgency of a “Must Buy Now” idea for making bazillions of dollars doesn’t always play out… even if the ad gets you so excited that you feel a little twitchy with your “buy” trigger. Take your time, think it over, if cannabis is going to become the world’s next huge industry there will be more than one opportunity to buy shares of the most appealing companies in the business.
We’ve kept the original discussion thread from the January article below, so you can see what other investors have been thinking in recent months… and if you’ve got anything to add, well, feel free to jump in and share. Thanks for reading!
Disclosure: Of the stocks mentioned above, I own shares of Innovative Industrial Properties, Amazon, and Franco-Nevada. I don’t own any of the other stocks mentioned in this article, and will not trade in any covered stocks for at least three days after publication, per Stock Gumshoe’s trading rules.
one typo: who rent to tenants who are otherwise hartd to serve
and you forgot to include the link to the GrowGeneration presentation.
Thank you for your thorough analysis.
Woody, really? Pointing out typos? How much did you pay for this free advice.
LOL
Thanks woody. Will fix.
i paid to figure this out, (a lot !!) but as i recall from reading this am, you got 4! I think acbff instead.
instead of which one?
Likely Canopy Growth.
KSHB is one of them not the others.
only one is KUSB
so you saying you paid and he is 4 out of 5 correct?
Great in depth as usual. I got jittery and sold out a four days ago before the latest carnage.
This market is running on sentiment and not valuations. If you are a chartist or think you can time moves there is big money to be made but beware.
YOU CAN ALSO LOSE BIG MONEY !!!
Only if you sell unless they go bankrupt.
Copy & paste this comment over on any Bitcoin discussion, ha ha.
Great work. Thanks. WEED received a $250 million investment from Constellation.
Pockjet change for STZ. I think they are taking a small speculative position, but it does give the company a little more feeling of reality.
STZ is investing in some small craft bourbon distilleries lately, also. Not as dumb as some big old conglomerates, maybe? Hmmm, and I could partly fund my STZ purchase by selling a call to mr. takeprofits! 🙂
Indeed, with their established liquor business I am thinking a call option on Constellation might just be the cheapest and low risk way to benefit from the upside in the marijuana sector given their substantial stake in CANOPY, an obvious leader in the industry. The challenge is picking the right option as to timing and strike price, need to do some research.
Isn’t that a picture of Myron Martin?
Interesting – and much mahalo for your insight!
I was following AERO – something in line with GRWG and aquaponics for home growing. It hasn’t really taken off yet, but I have seen units at our local Home Depot – ideal for people who want to grow their own marijuana in their homes.
I am also invested in Cannabis Science CBIS because they are currently in research and development of medical marijuana products and have acres of land in which to grow their own. Not sure how long it will take for new plantings to reach harvest age, but the potential is there, in Aunty’s opinion. Of course, Aunty is a gambler, but the stakes are low (10¢, recently up from 5¢) and the potential is what intrigues.
Mahalo again for your insight!!
aunty,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,cannabis is an annual, fyi.
Right … not just an annual, but a weed. It grows like crazy for 3 to 7 months, then you harvest and start over.
That was my experience last year. Sitting in the sun behind the house in October trimming off the buds of the single plant I grew in a bucket all summer and harvested over a couple of weeks in the fall. And almost legal here in southern Ontario.
GeneH
Greenhouse Mj is annual, indoor Mj is 4x per annum or more. Same exact product, with indoor being more ‘secure.’
casey research pushes MEDFF, APHQF, & PRMCF all which are up quite a bit from his October call. I didn’t subscribe to this latest push, but am up quite a bit on these 3
Thanks Travis. I get so annoyed with these pitches and myself for listening as though they actually are going to name stocks. All of the other newsletters give it a lot of publicity,and then it seems 90% of the hour and half are graphs and astronomical returns. You could say that in one minute, and then Doug comes on with a good libertarian speech. I did well on Robinson’s pot suggestions until the last two days. Thinkolater’s take makes me much less optimistic. Thanks for the realism.
Robinson’s pot suggestions and reports have been useful to me. It’s especially nice the way he constantly updates as the market moves upward. Some think the sector’s glory days over, but I believe they’ve only just begun. Canada is not far away from total legalization and California is close to it. Session’s moves spooked quite a few people. He’s a serious enemy and should not be ignored.
I disagree about Sessions. I think he is trying to stop a train and has no footing. I think he will have zero impact.
It’s really a come on pitch for their complete service: International Speculator, Resource Investor, etc. $3K for a lifetime subscription of course the $199 annual fee. The Gumshoe pretty much nails it.
I have about 20 Marijuana stocks I can give,but MSRT,CBWTF,Emmbf and REFG along with Travis’s mentioned stocks..
John Carter’s indicator developer, Eric Purdy, created one being called ‘Top Hats’ that prints a colored ‘^’ when price has gotten far above the 21 day ema, for potential mean reversion. Combined with his Squeeze indicator (Bolinger Bands inside the Keltner channel, printing dots when true), the presence of a squeeze trumping the TopHat indicator. Having clusters of these print is pretty sweet.
I’ve just gone in and put this list into charts.
IIPR does not have any.
TWMJF – absolutely does have clusters and no squeezes
GRWG – none
KSHB – a single print on each time frame (D, 195′, 1 hr, 15′ charts)
CBWTF – none and the Daily chart shows it close to accomplishing that reversion
to the 21 ema.
FWIW.
I sure wish I knew more about this and understand how to apply it to picking stocks
I’ll start considering investing in weed-related stocks when Jeff Sessions is gone….
Jeff Sessions will NOT have an effect on weed related business. This thing is way to big for the AG to do anything about. This is a states rights issue. He is old school with that gateway drug crap. What needs his attention is the opioid crisis.
It’s Wednesday, and my portfolio dropped 10K in one day, twice. I’ve decided to weather the storm. Marijuana should recover. It appears my gold miner will pop soon, Midas gold, it’s a good one.
I agree with you about states rights & devoting real attention to the opioid disaster , but as long as he is in office there is the potential for problems causing additional sector volatility that as a retiree I’m not willing to accept. He is a complete hypocrite when it comes to the states rights issue- he’s all for them when it comes to matters of race, voting rights, etc.
Best of luck to all that invest, too much uncertainty for me.
Buy Canadian pot stocks. Sessions can’t do anything about that. Should he actually curtail the US pot market, Canada should get even larger.
What on-line service are you using to buy Canadian stocks. Ameritrade only has a few that you can buy but not the ones that I want to buy.
Ameritrade. I got the good ones and a few Specs. IE, ACBFF, CBWTF, DJACF, and of course TWMJF. For Specs I have BLOZF, PURA and VAPI. All bought on Ameritrade.
You need to check on the “cherry picking” you see in presentations. When you see a chart going up umteem %, stop and bring up the current chart, back about a year. You will see how fast they can come back down. I saw one that was $32 and went to $325. Last week you could buy it for 39 cents. Be careful.
Sessions did us some favors. He gave a buying chance. Once these stocks take off there will be no more big chances to own. He might have bought big time and it will take off. Sessions will only make you rich. Dips are nice. Stay with Travis he saves us many hazzards.
I bought a new weed ETF. MJX. Recommended by Rev. “Shark” on Real Money. It is filled with established Canadian Co.s and American companies that actually exist and are showing at least positive revenue. Only own it for a few days, but will let you good people know how it works out. Before that I bought shares in a few shakey new weed companies. Made a $2000.00 profit on sheer mania trend and got out.
Sorry for the typo Woody. No way to fix it. BTW, I’m an irregular. Forgot to log in before commenting.
How did you buy WEED? What online company are you using? Ameritrade, Ally don’t let you buy it.
The USA etf came down a lot so it’s a great safe move but you may want to concider the Canadian hmmj I bought at 8.00 a share the us stock exchange as well as the German always factor in a extra 50!pct on all the starting prices even on real stocks and etfs I believe you can buy now on nyse they kept it on the Toronto from April when it started the Canadian prime minister gets a little up tight from the USA always being ahead of them in industries so he did what he could to limit the early shares to Canadians I used penn trade and I put my 20 k in and don’t plan on adding only because I need the cash on hand for the individual stocks the USA may do 100 Pct the day after legalizationn but hmmj will will be 300 Pct no doubts if I had waited and this was my first round of the free cannabis money I wouldn’t of known the truth and the mark ups even at 14 it for sure go past 35.00 counting down the final month . Just friendly advice . I’m not a stock guy just been all over this since round one and I consider my self very fortunate but it’s made me spoiled with only a hundred Pct. I know that pisses off the legit stock traders but this is a different game I’m happy for the bitcoin guys don’t know why they are so bitter with the pot faithful but whatever . Last time I looked it fell to low thirty and remember when it came out and was higher than that even the original chart was a lie the day it was available to the regular hard working Americans it was 7 bucks higher.what ever you decide unless their are big changes as there have been at the end of the hype gain dates it’s a sell and be very happy. Not a 5 year hold because you get greedy profits will do you well if you have a chance with a weeks worth of gains and sell off before it drops back down over the next month or so remember SHOP was a home run when they first came out and is the best long term hold anyone holding miracle grow sell and put in shop as soon as Canada made them the middle man on all cannabis sales they took there next step and will go over two hundred for Good if your not familiar their a different but more useful amazon for buying and selling and will take a lot from Ebay as well as amazon who is Going hi tec and selling just to keep the original structure. Good luck . Just friendly advice no offense ment trying to give advice from over 10 years in the pot play hell if you want to count when I sold dimes and nickels in the early 80s then yeah I have some extra experience. Best of luck to all
What happens when folks figure out they can grow their own supplies of high quality marijuana? I would lean toward the “picks and shovels” play.
Even there, I suspect that folks growing their own would not result in anything too spectacular in terms of a “picks and shovels” play. They call it “weed” for a reason: it tolerates poor soil, drought, and benign neglect – in short it grows like a weed. It’s hard to imagine DIY home growers opting for expensive hydro set-ups if they have the option of growing a few plants in their yard.
I agree with your statement. It is called weed for a reason and anyone one can grow it anywhere. However, if a person is a connoisseur, they may be interested. I believe there are countless of such people. They will grow their own, buy legally occasionally, and it will produce whatever that exponential “fill in the blank” effect is, where the more people join, then the more people join. Growth. But hey, who knows?
I own a garden centre in Canada. Sales of items that could be used for growing weed were up 4x (lights, pots, potting soil, etc.) in the Christmas rush. We are seeing a 50% year over year growth in tropical plant sales so that likely accounts for some of the increase. Just back from a trade show and other owners had similar growth. I’ll update in June just before we become legal and again in August
I would love to have your update. Any public companies doing that?
Ya know for some reason I don’t see any seed supply.
I have been thinking the same…..when you buy, the types and qualities are numerous……where does one buy seed??
No where to look, or KNOW where to look.
There are a number of ways to procure seeds from large Europen seed bank companies (located notably in Spain and Netherlands) with many California strains for sale there as well. I am unclear about the US seed regulations but have attended a number of cannabis industry conferences and they are for sale. Here is an example of the upscale US market: http://www.greenstate.com/culture/inside-the-worlds-elite-cannabis-seed-bazaar/
Cheers!
Humboldt County, California, is the capital of cannabis seeds and clone strains. One company with connections there is GRCU
That results in low THC content material which no one wants anymore. High THC MJ is a product of genetics, growing only the female plants which can occasionally produce a male branch which must be discovered and destroyed, and growing conditions. Small hydro set-ups aren’t all that expensive.
I grew one plant in my backyard and made $5K on it a couple of years ago. It takes a lot of water, which is scarce, attention (pick out the worms), and there’s always the danger of a kid jumping the fence and stealing it at night. Local laws can also be a problem.
Reasons why indoor growing is better: less water, no worms, no theft. Also grows faster with lights.
Scott’s is to high priced unless you play options.
these stocks go up on hype,but take profits…they will double..so take profits ..cbis and mjna are penny stocks..they double and huge volume.over 10 million in a day!Fidelity customers love these 2…Oxford Club favors Medff, Weed,Aphqf,Twmjf…buy and take profits after the hype…hold one of each as much easier to see the ups and downs!1
As far as recommendations from Casey go I have to give them a thumbs up on marijuana stocks so far. I got into APHQF, MEDFF & PRMCF on 10/13/17 though all went down today they’re all up from 126 ~ 246% plus I sold half of each when they hit the 100% double mark so I’m not out anything no matter what they do from here. I’ll probably hit some more tomorrow if they’re up a bit or down any all.
Sold out of acbff cbwtf insy this week which should have been quicker. May add lbuy to cbis.
I bought CBIS at $o.o6 where do you see this in a year?
I bought LBUY about 4months ago. It dropped 50%in the first 2 weeks. The last few weeks it has been digging itself out of that hole with gains every day. Up 30% and I expect this stock is just getting going with California in the mix. This is the Priceline of Pot-Stocks.
Hello friend friendly advice I have been playing the mj game since 2014 Lbuy might be a good idea if u can lower your buy in price which would be high and limit your profits when every stock goes up with the hype usually 40 days from legal votes .so yes you can set it and forget it on 90 Pct of the mj related stocks even the ones who don’t touch product but the game changed a lot lately since the companies can advertise legally yet same reason why banks and bid pharm hasn’t stepped in yet 90 Pct of the info resorted are paid advertising by the actual company and unfortunately now that Canada choose Shopify the first legit major company who will be similar to amazon with selling products on line but better as well as Ebay and PayPal they will be the go threw company for almost all cannabis purchases starting after legal vote in Canada when I switched miracle grow for SHOP in December to put my profits in as soon as the hype dies down after a important vote which was just a lucky move I only started with stocks because of the pot thing and except for shop are all I do . The second round I held Aurora canopy aphria and wheaton and a few like canna royal which ended up as dead money until the stocks hopeful make a big move and go up a buck or so for a week or two . I was able to get out around even by doubling my shares at the true price inbeteeen the hype votes that have done more than awesome 100 Pct is a disappointing ( 300-600 Pct (spoils me) dropping my cost per share and selling off the stocks I should of dropped . I think personally shop will trump a lot of the amazons , Priceline’s etc of pot. But if that is a favorite of your by all means they will double up or at least 60-75 Pct but will not be making any money for you right now. These aren’t real stocks right now and get away with a lot of misleading info . Remember the USA is very young in the game and there are 5 or 6 really good USA primary stocks to buy at there bottom and sell after the vote and when the bottom again as long as they are still growing and getting bigger like the marijuana extraction part oils etc then once again right before a important vote it’s easy money. Just friendly advice there are a lot of online services out there that will be linked to delivery just not going to be like a true Priceline of pot wheaton and there streaming version has been a Home run every time held them since 60 cents and would still add to the stake with all the other companies they have invested in which they have made classified part of the contracts but basically they take from 50 -75 Pct from the companies they have started which is close to 25 now and as soon as the company starts turning a profit they get approx 50 Pct from roots to flower off every thing the company sells for minimum of three years they won’t go over two bucks for about 30 -50 days but when they move they will hit 3.00 minimum this time around very concertive at 3.00 honestly. Hope that helps wish you success friend
Travis,
Thanks so kindly, lots of work on your part, much appreciated. Why does everyone keep saying Canada is going to make marijuana legal in the summer ie July. Didn’t they legalize
it on Jan 2, 2018. The stocks went ape that day and this week started a downward trend.
I do have MEDFF, APHQF & PRMCF. I have notes on all of your work and will definately
keep my eye of them.
THANKS AGAIN.
KAREN
The Canada legalization of marijuana for recreational use is in July but there will likely be some delays as it is uncertain whether the provinces will be ready
The Jan 2 spike relates to the California law
They voted it legal with a start date this summer. They need to get policies in place and permits issued. For now, watch the permits. I bought a stock the other day that got one of 4 permits for the whole Providence. Of course it went up and will continue to do so. Need to watch CA permits also. Look to see who is in LA.
Sales and earning should start coming in soon as not all are waiting for summer. Many have foreign contacts and contracts. Then TRTC is Canadian, but has 3 locations in Vegas (operating since July 1). They have 2 more in CA and opening more. Earnings should look good even through not much in Canada now.
Karen.It’s going to take that long to make new laws which is going to be a lot more difficult then the prime minster ofcanada realizes but he is looking to bring Canada’s finances and taxable fortunes First and become a legend. He actually has granted research money to Mymmf which will be a huge company in the next few years a lot quicker than the First licenses companies like alphria and canopy and even the second round companies like Aurora who has caught up faster than anyone because of there mgt legit corporate head hunters that left huge ceo positions in pig pharm as well as a original cfo of canopy but things are changing banks aren’t all the way in just getting there foot in the doors so the prime minister giving grants to Mymmf is insane a definite 200pct gainer if you get in under two don’t chase any of these stocks soon as a scary message comes up they all shed back down 50 cent to 1.00 on 4.00 dollars or less companies. . Defiantly jump on wheaton while it has come down under 1.25 will only float up to 2.00 bucks a month before but will take off every time i’ve held them as one of the 5 I won’t sell till after this the biggest round of all not so much ass the 1000 Pct gains we got lucky with in 2014 but they will hit 3-4.00 concervative the weeks leading up and a few days after the vote hype the extra month to come up with the new laws driving when’s and where and who’s etc may make for a new type of game this time around just be careful right after the vote be patient it pays off if you follow the same rules from the previous votes
Everybody is excited about THC (recreational).
I’m excited about cannabinoids (REAL medical breakthroughs).
Is there, Travis, a company working efficiently in that area???
Kalytera Therapeutics $KALTF $KALY.v is a clinical stage CBD play that is on my radar….currently no position.
Curious they owe a lot of money haven’t made a profit have been well in the negative . What am I missing here?
Abcann. The father of cannibis is an advisor. Ties to companies in Israel. A lot of PHD’s in the company and the growing strategy was developed at a reputable agricultural specific university. Their product today will apparently be exactly the same in 5 years, 50 years, etc.
Marc I’m in a can since .70cents what ties to Israel, unassuming your referring to medical side , is abcan connected to? Never heard that before?
Thanks
A lot of deliberate spike with every new milestone making for good advertising. Truth is not much in hard going traffic with only 20 people in line for opening day on the rec scene at the most visited storefronts in Calif capital. Oakland with some sizeable turnout. I’ve bought into a frontrunner a few elections in the most recent with Canada pending. It would be wise for many of the major alcohol and tobacco to get involved as far as Sessions is concerned. Tweed being the largest. ITHUF LHSIF MPXEF all with pending catalyst on this ultra juvenile space. TRTC extremely well established self introverted distributor on West Coast. Organics ( farm harvest vegetables)occupying shelf space in Wal Mart. Farms on the eastern seaboard.
Little bitty crap shot PNTV run from .01 – .15 in seven month falling to .08 today. WTCG up 300% (.03) last couple weeks. Tremely ittsy.
Hi How does WTCG fit into the canabis space assuming you mean WTCG:PKN
I think the 20 folks you saw in line would have been morning of Jan 1, Everyone was hungover. Business picked up big in pm.
Many thanks, Travis, for (partially) putting me out of my misery. Your comment that, “I almost poked my eyes out a few times having to listen to it all” is spot on. I don’t think I’ve ever “listened” to such a protracted, random, amateurish, scripted and canned presentation — had to leave the room a number of times to regain my composure. Despite all of that pain, I think they have some good ideas. Since last August, my attention (and dollars) have been attracted and commited to those cannabis-related companies that have substantial cash in their current assets, been able to raise significant amounts of capital from institutional/corporate investors, have a relatively small current liabilities balance, have business plans that are well articulated and make sense as a way to carve out and achieve a meaningful position in the industry and have management teams with demonstrated, related expertise. Good investing to all!