12 Comments
Member
172 August 26, 2022 1:09 pm
I certainly am not a paid CFP Pundit. But I exited most of my NVDA back @ $213s. The NY and Jackson Hole pundits need to get out of their penthouses and see fly over America, as their noose is tightening as they already see the recession which may turn into the D word. The Feds created a monster in 2020 with PPP, buying bonds and securities, and flooded the country with DC Taxpayers' monies. Now American people will pay a huge price and Powell just subtly told us> He also said; " (imputed )" there are things he could not say". I have WAG as to what that might consist of. "Jerome Powell delivered a speech this morning in Jackson Hole, Wyoming for the Fedβs economic summit stating the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates and hold them at higher levels until inflation is under control. Powell warned the process could βalso bring some pain to households and businesses.β NVDA and other securities will be cheaper soon.
- Member 172August 26, 2022 1:11 pmThe Key Word here is "Pain".
Member 22353August 26, 2022 1:52 pmCould be. We'll see how that impacts the market in the year to come -- very often, the stock market gets optimistic about a future recovery (or a future drop in inflation, or whatever) long before the recovery looks real on "main street."We're not in complete nosebleed territory for most growth stocks these days, like we were a year ago... but we are still awfully high. The average valuation multiples are still elevated compared to the historical averages, just not quite at the "as high as they've ever been" levels from 1929 or 2001. Going from "higher than average" valuations to "lower than average" valuations if everyone begins to believe that we're in a 1970s inflation spiral would be very painful for almost every stock investor.- Member 172August 26, 2022 4:54 pmI believe the economy is truly digressing much more than some people realize.. The percentage of Americans who evaluate their lives poorly enough to be considered "suffering" on Gallup's Life Evaluation Index was 5.6% in July, the highest since the index's inception in 2008.This exceeds the previous high of 4.8% measured in April and is statistically higher than all prior estimates in the Covid-19 era.The most recent results, obtained July 26 to Aug. 2, 2022, are based on web surveys of 3,649 U.S. adults as a part of the Gallup Panel, a probability-based, non-opt-in panel of about 115,000 adults across all 50 states and the District of Columbia.The percentage of U.S. adults estimated to be thriving has steadily declined since it reached a record high of 59.2% in June 2021. The latest estimate of 51.2% is an 18-month low.The lowest recorded thriving rate of 46.4% was measured twice -- first, in November 2008 amid the Great Recession, and second, in late April 2020, during the initial economic shutdown associated with the outbreak of Covid-19 in the U.S.
- Member 46August 26, 2022 3:58 pmWell it is obvious that you are late and you should have offered the Feds the benefit of your expertise two years ago, and we would not be in this mess today. No matter where I look there are always people that have the solutions and they do not reveal their knowledge until it is to late.
- Member 22353August 26, 2022 4:49 pmHa! If only there were always a perfect and easy answer. :)
- Member 172August 26, 2022 5:12 pmThe percentage of Americans who evaluate their lives poorly enough to be considered "suffering" on Gallup's Life Evaluation Index was 5.6% in July, the highest since the index's inception in 2008.This exceeds the previous high of 4.8% measured in April and is statistically higher than all prior estimates in the Covid-19 era.The most recent results, obtained July 26 to Aug. 2, 2022, are based on web surveys of 3,649 U.S. adults as a part of the Gallup Panel, a probability-based, non-opt-in panel of about 115,000 adults across all 50 states and the District of Columbia.The percentage of U.S. adults estimated to be thriving has steadily declined since it reached a record high of 59.2% in June 2021. The latest estimate of 51.2% is an 18-month low.The lowest recorded thriving rate of 46.4% was measured twice -- first, in November 2008 amid the Great Recession, and second, in late April 2020, during the initial economic shutdown associated with the outbreak of Covid-19 in the U.S.
- Member 22353August 27, 2022 9:28 amInteresting, the investor sentiment indexed have come off their lows but I guess that's not the same slice of the economy.I expect that kind of survey sentiment to get worse through the next few months -- election marketing is going to fan the flames of grievance, and inflation will continue to feel painful and perhaps bite harder again with heating bills. The Fed has taken a bite out of housing speculation, which will help inflation, but that also hurts sentiment... and it's not like rents will drop down next month, a lot of inflationary pressure in sectors like housing and services comes up slowly and goes down slowly.Probably going to be a turbulent few months, but I wouldn't bet on my ability to predict the future specifically enough for it to do me any good as an investor.
- Member 172August 26, 2022 5:07 pmYes, oh great pseudo-savant one. I went to mostly cash in Mid April 2020 The last Friday in April the Feds were too and did announce that there were 16 Million Jobs lost. The market should tank, right? NVDA went from about $270 up to above $800 in that OCTOBER. I really was not aware at the time that the Feds were BUYING various bonds and securities. Can the Feds do that? Sure as hades they did. Guess you knew such was occurring and quadrupled your money? As far as your snarky comment to me, I have about as much influence with the Feds as you do hossfly.
Member
44 August 27, 2022 5:34 am
Travis, any thoughts on Hipgnosis Pink Floyd bid and SONG's options? Taking more debt could be risky but passing on the option could be a missed opportunity
Member
October 6, 2022 3:27 pm
Hi Travis, I was wondering if you had any thoughts on Charles Mizrahi's 3 microcap stocks for huge growth over the next few years?
- Member 22353October 6, 2022 6:00 pmDoesn't ring a bell offhand, do you have a copy of the ad you can forward, or a link you can share here?