Last week we dug into an “Oppenheimer Stock” story about nuclear fuel from one of the Angel Publishing newsletters — that was all about a firm which might supply the fuel for the next generation of small modular reactors, the most interesting part of the push to increase the use of nuclear power (they didn’t use the word “might,” of course… that’s not the way ads work, they said its monopoly made it about as safe as you could get, while also giving them the chance to do better than NVIDIA and the other high-flying AI stocks).

And today, we have another one — a very similar ad, from the same publisher, calling nuclear power the “AI Master Key” … and another one that’s all about nuclear fuel… but, it turns out, a completely different stock.

Which one, you ask? Give me a moment, and we’ll run through the pitch and get you the answer.

Here’s the intro from the ad for Keith Kohl’s Energy Investor ($99 first year, renews at ?, six-month refund period), which sounds like a LOT of the different “nuclear power for AI” pitches we’ve seen over the past year:

“The AI Master Key

“AI’s massive growth is creating an unparalleled crisis, with energy demand poised to surge 4,900% by 2027.

“Sam Altman, Bill Gates, and Elon Musk have invested over $3 BILLION into the solution: The AI Master Key…

“The U.S. Energy Department has backed a $3 firm with the ‘master key’ tech poised to meet the escalating power needs of our AI-driven future.”

The backdrop? Pretty much any company working in nuclear power has the “backing” of the DoE in some way. And the expansion of nuclear power in any real way can’t possibly happen by 2027, even 2030 is likely to be very early days for testing the first couple SMR reactors — it’s likely that none of the currently planned crop of civilian SMRs will be built by 2027 (the Army might have its first microreactor by then, perhaps even as soon as next year, testing it for use on remote bases… but those are dramatically smaller than the civilian SMR projects, and this is one of the areas where the military can be faster and more efficient than civilians).

We’ll skip over the “AI is going to be huge” and “AI will consume the power of a thousand suns” hype, if you don’t mind — that’s all about the same as all the other nuclear power pitches we’ve looked at in the past few months. We’ll take it as a given that US electricity consumption is likely to rise faster than previously expected over the next decade, and that’s in part due to more data centers and more NVIDIA chips running AI projects (as well as to electrification of other things, like EVs and heat pumps). And since we’re also trying to retire all the old coal plants, and battery storage for solar is nowhere near ready to be a major “baseload” power source, that means we need either a lot more natural gas power plants, or more nuclear power. Only one of those is emissions-free, so nuclear power is finally having its moment as an investment story.

But we’ve gone through that so many times, so for today we’ll focus on the specific stock being teased — let’s jump to the part where we get some hints about this “one tiny $3 company”….

“… relying solely on uranium and nuclear energy won’t suffice to meet the rapidly increasing energy demands of AI.

“Because it takes decades to build these nuclear plants and tens of billions in capital…

“And we can’t wait that long because, as Bloomberg says, our ‘electricity demand [is set to] double in three years.’

“But there’s ONE company with the technology that’s critical for advancing this nuclear revolution, essential for powering AI effectively…

“A company whose revolutionary tech can unlock the “Master Key” for AI.

“The U.S. is FINALLY entering a new, safer era of nuclear power… all thanks to ONE tiny $3 company.”

Just to point out one little glitch in that paragraph — no, electricity demand is of course not going to double in three years. That would be bonkers. That quote, before they altered it, was that “global electricity demand from data centers, cryptocurrencies, and artificial intelligence could more than double over the next three years.” The actual big-picture number there is that overall electricity demand, globally, is expected to increase more than 3% over the next couple years. That’s a big deal, and it will be more impactful in places where data centers and their ilk already consume a large portion of the power, like Ireland (which might see a third of its electricity consumed by data centers by 2026, up from less than 20% today)… but this is a huge and complicated business — the estimate is currently that data centers in the US will probably consume 8% of the electricity by 2030, up from about 3-4% now.

But anyway, yes, that “new, safer era” is all about small modular reactors (SMRs)….

“SMRs have emerged as the ultimate ‘Master Key’ for the AI era.

“Because compared to traditional reactors, these compact, cutting-edge reactors are:

“Smaller — SMRs only need about 17 acres of land space compared to the 640 acres typically needed for a traditional reactor plant…

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“Cost-efficient — SMRs come at a fraction of the cost, with an estimated price tag of $303 million compared to the hefty $5.5 billion investment required for a traditional nuclear plant…

“Low maintenance — SMRs are designed to operate for up to 30 years without the need for refueling, in stark contrast to traditional nuclear plants that must be refueled every 1–2 years.

“Safer — SMRs are equipped with advanced safety features, operating at much lower temperatures to prevent risks such as meltdowns and explosions…

“Flexible in terms of their location — SMRs can be built closer to where energy is needed, reducing power transmission losses and the likelihood of energy outages compared to traditional nuclear power plants.

“And unlike traditional reactors, SMRs can be scaled to match specific energy demands more precisely.”

I doubt that any of the currently planned or in-progress SMR projects will end up costing less than a billion dollars, given how early in the process those projects are, and how hyper-optimistic their promoters have been to date… but it is true that they are much more scalable, and should be able to be built much more quickly and efficiently than conventional nuclear reactors. The first wave aren’t being developed all that quickly, the nuclear bureaucracy is still pretty overwhelming and most of the SMR projects are a decade or so along in their process of getting approved and funded, without any real construction underway yet… but hopefully they’ll end up being much easier to mass-produce and be able to grow very quickly once the first real US SMR projects go into operation, which is likely to be 2029-2030 if all goes well. So yes, flexible and faster to build, in theory… but not yet. We gotta get a few built first, and prove up the system, and convince neighbors not to fight them.

Here’s the optimism:

“But these SMRs are not only being built in the United States…

“A total of 65 SMR nuclear plants are currently in development worldwide!

“Companies across the globe are getting on board as more than 22 countries commit to TRIPLING their nuclear energy capacity by 2050…”

And the stock pitch:

“I’ve found a company that holds a monopoly on the essential fuel tech required for SMRS to operate.

“This company has secured a partnership with the Department of Energy to expedite the deployment of SMRs throughout the U.S.

“Thanks to this breakthrough tech, AI firms can tap into nuclear energy swiftly and efficiently, bypassing the traditional hurdles of decades of development and billions in investment typically associated with building power plants.

“And it paves the way for the potential construction of hundreds, possibly even thousands, of nuclear facilities nationwide, all at a fraction of the usual cost and in a fifth of the time typically required.

“Nobel Prize-winning investor David White calls this crucial technology ‘a game-changing technological advancement’…

“And the best part is that the company behind this innovation is trading for $3.”

Wait a minute, Kohl’s colleague Alex Koyfman just told us last week that his company had the monopoly on fuel for SMRs! These guys oughtta talk to each other before they make these promises!

Koyfman was talking about HALEU, which some of the SMR projects will need (that’s a more potent form of uranium than the Light Enriched Uranium (LEU) that most conventional nuclear plants use — LEU is less than 5% U-235, HALEU is 5-20%… above that you get to “weapons grade” HEU). And Koyfman was not particularly accurate with his “monopoly” talk, either, not all of the SMR designs use HALEU, some use the same fuel as conventional reactors.

So what’s the deal with Kohl’s promise of a monopoly on “essential fuel?” More clues:

“These innovative rods play a pivotal role in the reactor’s operation, housing uranium pellets that serve as the nuclear fuel.

“Within these rods, a process called ‘nuclear fission’ occurs, wherein uranium atoms are split, releasing heat.

“This heat is then transformed into electricity.

“What distinguishes this company’s fuel rods from conventional ones is their unique design and unique composition.

“Their helical shape and a special zirconium-uranium alloy enhance heat dissipation, preventing the reactor from overheating.

“This design innovation significantly enhances reactor safety, reducing fuel operating temperatures by up to 1,000 degrees compared to traditional reactors.

“As a result, these rods virtually eliminate the risk of meltdowns or explosions, representing a significant advancement in nuclear safety and efficiency.

“This breakthrough has led the U.S. Department of Energy to champion these fuel rods as the new benchmark for the industry…

“Which will power this next generation of nuclear reactors in America.”

Oh, for God’s sake. Those photos that Kohl use look awfully familiar… and that’s because he’s been recommending this same stock for a long time, it seems he has just dusted off the pitch and sprinkled a little “AI” on top, hoping to catch our attention.

Let me give you a bit more of the tease, in case it doesn’t sound familiar yet:

“This company has attracted huge partnerships from major players in the energy sector…

“Four Major Utility Companies, Responsible for Generating Half of the U.S.’s Nuclear Power, have partnered with this firm to use Their Fuel Rods.

“The first one is Southern Company — a Fortune 500 behemoth valued at $72 billion with 9 million customers.

“With six nuclear sites poised to adopt this groundbreaking technology, Southern is set to boost this company’s annual revenue by $2.62 billion!

“Additionally, Exelon Generation Company has entered into a partnership with this company.

“Exelon is a $35 billion giant operating across 48 states.

“It’s the largest nuclear operator in America, operating 23 nuclear power sites that serves 10 million customers!

“Moreover, Dominion Energy Inc. and Duke Energy Corporation, with their combined 13 nuclear reactors, have partnered up with this tiny firm.

“But when you add all the revenue this tech upstart could stand to make together…

“This tiny company is staring down a colossal $11.59 billion income opportunity as we speak!”

So… yes, this company has worked, to some degree, with the four biggest civilian nuclear plant operators in the US. Sadly, that was also the case three years ago, when Keith Kohl was first touting this nuclear fuel stock, though he called it more like a $7 billion opportunity at the time. That started nine years ago, in the Spring of 2015, when those big utility companies asked the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to “prepare to review” Lightbridge’s fuel designs, hoping to apply to use that fuel within a few years (at the time, they said they hoped to make an application in 2017, and start using it in a commercial reactor “as early as 2020”).

So before we go into the details of the company, here’s the stock chart since Kohl started promising great things for this company — at the time, he called this the “Tri-fuel 238 revolution” stock (I covered it in August of 2021, this chart goes back to the first ad I saw hinting at the stock, on June 29, 2021) — the orange line is the S&P 500, for comparison:

Though actually, this publisher’s fascination with the stock goes back about a decade, to when Christian DeHaemer was touting it in 2014 — back then, they had just gotten their special reactor fuel design patented, and some folks were excited about that. Here’s the chart if you go back that far…

So yes, Keith Kohl is again pitching Lightbridge (LTBR) as the savior of nuclear power in the US, with their new fuel rod design that is safer and generates less heat than conventional uranium fuel rods.

Their claim seems to be the same as it has been for the past decade — that they can make conventional reactors safer and more productive. It might even be true, but so far nobody’s buying it… LBTR has reported a total of $0 in revenue over the past six full years, and has only spent a total of around $10-12 million on R&D during that time (though they do spend a good $7+ million a year on their “general and administrative” expenses, so I guess they’re happy to keep paying their own salaries). They did have some revenue in the decade before that — never enough to come close to breaking even, but more than zero.

What do they have to show for that? Most recently they announced a “significant milestone” in their project at Idaho National Laboratory (where a lot of the “next-gen nuclear” work is focused): They produced a partial-length rod, and they plan to produce “coupon samples” that will be used to test that rod design in the Advanced Test Reactor in Idaho next year. Here’s how the CEO sums it up in the press release:

“Our advancement in nuclear fuel brings great potential towards extending the operational life of the fuel in reactors and introducing substantial safety benefits for today’s reactors and for the emerging small modular reactors (SMRs) globally. We are also designing the fuel to enable adjustment of power output of SMRs in response to fluctuations in supply by wind and solar generation, for a zero-carbon electric grid.

“Looking ahead, Lightbridge is well positioned to capitalize on these opportunities. The increasing global demand for clean, reliable power, coupled with international initiatives set forth at COP28 to significantly increase nuclear capacity by 2050, presents substantial growth prospects for our technology.”

Sounds good, I guess, but here’s what they were saying the last time I looked at Lightbridge, three years ago:

“I’m pleased with the continued progress Lightbridge has made in our fuel development program throughout the third quarter. We began work on our second U.S. Department of Energy GAIN voucher at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), which is focused on the manufacturing process of Lightbridge Fuel. Last week, we completed our work at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) under our initial GAIN voucher to support irradiation testing of our fuel. This was another important milestone for Lightbridge and sets the stage for us to test our fuel sample coupons in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at INL.”

So… three years ago, they were “setting the stage” to test the fuel samples in the test reactor. Now, they’re planning to produce those samples next year.

That doesn’t mean they’ll fail, or that designing a new fuel for reactors isn’t worth some attention… it’s just a reminder that EVERYTHING in nuclear power takes forever. If you’re excited about the prospects for this nuclear fuel redesign, that’s fine, but just know that you’ve probably got time to think it over before you invest your money. The earliest they’ll be testing their fuel rods in a real reactor to test out how they work is next year… and that does not necessarily mean that the risk-averse operators of these $30-billion civilian nuclear power plants will jump to start using the fuel right away.

The company’s last annual report highlighted their deal with Centrus (LEU), which was Alex Koyfman’s “nuclear fuel monopoly” stock — they are conducting some initial design studies with the idea of building a fuel fabrication pilot plant at Centrus’ fuel facility in Piketon, Ohio (which is where Centrus is currently running a demonstration plant to make HALEU for those future potential SMRs that need it). And they adopted the OECD’s “technology readiness level” framework that they think will help them explain their progress toward commercialization of their fuel rod design… here’s how they sum that up:

“Currently, Lightbridge Fuel is positioned at TRL 4-5, indicating a significant phase in our development process. At this stage, Lightbridge Fuel has moved beyond theoretical research (TRL 1-3) and entered into the realm of validation in a laboratory environment (TRL 4) and initiation of validation in representative operating conditions (TRL 5). This signifies that the core principles underlying Lightbridge Fuel have been successfully demonstrated through calculations, in a number of laboratory experiments, and in test reactor proof-of-concept experiments, where our efforts are now focused on verifying the technology’s performance under conditions that closely simulate operational scenarios.”

Which means they’re still working through proving out the design in a test environment, and hopefully moving forward, at some point in the years to come, toward building and testing prototypes in actual reactors.

Maybe the SMR designers will end up liking the design, but they’ve got all kinds of risks of their own, and for the most part they aren’t even at the stage where they’d necessarily think about the specific fuel design. Or at least, they’re not at the stage where they’re talking about it, though Lightbridge does say that their flexible designs, including shorter rods, would work well for SMR projects. The water-cooled ones, at least (so probably not the non-light water reactors that some of the SMR companies are pushing, like Oklo and Terrapower, but perhaps the light water SMRs from NuScale — though who knows, Lightbridge says they can use their design for heavy water reactors, too).

They’ve got their test going on in Idaho, and they did sign an agreement to launch an engineering study to assess whether Lightbridge fuel will work in CANDU reactors, in Romania (that’s a pressurized heavy water reactor), and they’ve got lots of DOE-funded research projects ongoing at universities. The big-picture stuff is all there, including political support and early cooperation with some of the potential large customers and access to DoE funding, and claims that their fuel is safer and can produce more electricity in conventional reactors… so maybe all that comes together someday into a commercial business.

But it hasn’t yet, and as I skim through their presentation, with talk of their first fuel rods being tested next year, it seems unlikely that it will happen rapidly. Commercialization seems far enough away that they’re probably better thought of as a venture capital-funded company, not a publicly-traded stock — even though their stock does trade every day. Their presentation indicates that they do not expect to be a commercial fuel supplier within the next three years… so maybe they’ll be ready for 2030? 2035? I have no idea.

They are currently valued at about $35 million, and they’re clearly hoping to ride the rising tide of interest in nuclear power… the biggest question, I guess, is whether they can keep floating long enough for that tide to perhaps pick them up in a few years, when they might have enough test data to be able to propose the construction of a facility to make these fuel rods for commercial customers, and perhaps even begin to sign some actual firm customer contracts.

That’s a bit too speculative for my blood, though it’s good to see interest rising in nuclear power again — and to be fair, Alex Koyfman’s pitch of Centrus (LEU) was too speculative for me, too, and they actually have a real facility that can make their HALEU fuel, and do a lot of work with conventional reactor customers already.

What say you, dear reader? Attracted to what Keith Kohl used to call the “TriFuel” savior of nuclear power? Think the rising interest will finally kick start their fuel development progress? Or is nuclear evolution too slow to bet on a firmly pre-commercial venture project? Let us know with a comment below…

P.S. One of the “Special Reports” Kohl throws in to sweeten the deal is his “Horseshoe Well” stock, a company that has a different and more lucrative drilling and fracking technique — we covered that pitch here, in case you want to catch up on what’s going on in fossil fuels, too.

Disclosure: Of the companies mentioned above, I own shares of NVIDIA.   I have stop-loss trades entered for NVIDIA that could trip at any time, but I will not alter those trades or otherwise trade in any covered stock for at least three days after publication, per Stock Gumshoe’s trading rules.